观察家研究基金会-奥库斯与印度洋-太平洋东部不断演变的安全架构（英）-2022.5-20页_10mb

报告摘要

AUKUS and the Eastern Indo-Pacific Security Architecture Summary

Core Content

AUKUS, a new security and defense arrangement between Australia, the UK, and the US, represents a significant shift in the security architecture of the eastern Indo-Pacific region. Formed in September 2021, it aims to address the growing strategic challenge posed by China, emphasizing a balance of power and credible deterrence.

Main Objectives

AUKUS's primary goals include:

Maintaining the balance of power with China in the Indo-Pacific region.
Ensuring credible deterrence against China through enhanced military and technological cooperation.
Strengthening defense capabilities in key areas such as cyber, artificial intelligence, quantum technologies, and the undersea domain.

Key Points

Formation and Background

AUKUS was announced as a joint statement by the leaders of Australia, the UK, and the US.
It is an informal alliance without a formal treaty, focusing on security cooperation and mutual military support.
The alliance is seen as a strategic choice for Australia and the UK to align with the US in the Indo-Pacific.

Impact on Regional Alliances

AUKUS is positioned to complement existing US alliances and partnerships, such as with Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines.
It differs from the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), which includes India and is more focused on cooperative security and non-military initiatives.
AUKUS's western-dominated nature contrasts with the ASEAN-centrism of the ASEAN Outlook on the Indo-Pacific, raising concerns about regional balance and cooperation.

Strategic Autonomy and Regional Reactions

The formation of AUKUS has caused tensions with France and apprehensions within the EU, particularly regarding strategic autonomy and multilateralism.
France criticized the cancellation of the submarine deal with Australia, which was originally with Naval Group, and expressed concerns over the US's shifting focus away from Europe.
The EU's strategic autonomy narrative has been reinforced by AUKUS's emergence, highlighting the divergence between the Anglosphere and Europe in Indo-Pacific strategy.

Operational and Strategic Initiatives

AUKUS is expected to evolve through bottom-up processes, with new defense agreements and initiatives being finalized under its banner.
It is likely to be integrated with the Pacific Deterrence Initiative (PDI), which aims to bolster US military presence and capabilities in the region.
The nuclear submarine deal with Australia is a central element of AUKUS, with the UK and the US sharing nuclear technology and plans for nuclear facilities in Australia.
A naval task force in the Western Pacific may be established under AUKUS, drawing on the NATO model of standing naval forces.

China's Response

China has criticized AUKUS, viewing it as a threat to regional stability and nuclear non-proliferation.
The Chinese government has identified five harms caused by AUKUS: nuclear proliferation, arms race, regional instability, undermining of a nuclear-free zone in Southeast Asia, and the resurgence of Cold War mentality.
Despite these criticisms, China has responded moderately and pragmatically, acknowledging AUKUS's role in countering its military modernization.
China and Russia have strengthened their military cooperation, including joint naval patrols, to counter AUKUS's influence.

Conclusion

AUKUS is a strategic response to the evolving security dynamics in the Indo-Pacific, particularly in the context of China's rising power. While it may not become a formal alliance like NATO, its informal nature and focus on hard power could reshape the security landscape. The trajectory of AUKUS will depend on its ability to coexist with other frameworks such as the Quad and ASEAN, while also addressing concerns from China, Russia, and European partners.

Key Players and Their Roles

Australia: Deteriorating relations with China and a strong alignment with the US and UK.
UK: Seeking to reposition globally post-Brexit, emphasizing Indo-Pacific engagement.
US: Aiming to maintain a competitive edge against China through alliances and partnerships.
China: Viewing AUKUS as a threat to regional stability and non-proliferation efforts.
Russia: Partnering with China to counter AUKUS's influence.
EU and France: Expressing concerns over strategic autonomy and multilateralism.

Future Outlook

AUKUS is expected to evolve steadily, with new defense agreements and operational initiatives in the near term.
Its long-term success will depend on coordinating with existing alliances, managing regional tensions, and maintaining a balance between deterrence and cooperation.
The impact on the Indo-Pacific security architecture is likely to be profound, with increased military presence, technological collaboration, and shifts in regional power dynamics.