2025全球贸易展望与统计报告_40页_1mb

Global Trade Outlook and Statistics Summary (April 2025)

Core Content

This report provides an updated outlook for global trade in 2025 and 2026, highlighting the adverse effects of rising tariffs and trade policy uncertainty (TPU) on trade flows and economic growth. It also includes a new forecast for commercial services trade, which complements the long-standing merchandise trade analysis.

Main Views

Global Trade Forecast

• World merchandise trade is expected to decline by 0.2% in 2025 before a modest recovery of 2.5% in 2026.
• This marks a significant downward shift from the previous year's 2.9% growth, largely due to the surge in tariffs and TPU.
• The adjusted forecast is 1.5% lower than the baseline, which would have seen 2.7% and 2.9% growth for 2025 and 2026, respectively.
• World GDP growth at market exchange rates is projected at 2.2% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, 0.6% and 0.2% below the baseline, respectively.

Regional Impact

• North America is the most affected region, subtracting 1.7 percentage points from global merchandise trade growth in 2025, turning the overall figure negative.
• Asia and South and Central America and the Caribbean also experience negative impacts, with Asia’s contribution halved to 0.6 percentage points.
• Other regions (Africa, CIS, Middle East) see a decline but remain positive in their contributions.
• LDCs are expected to see positive trade flows, with exports growing by 4.8% and imports by 7.6% in the adjusted forecast, compared to 3.5% and 7.0% in the baseline, due to trade diversion from China.

Commercial Services Trade

• Commercial services trade is forecast to grow by 4.0% in 2025 and 4.1% in 2026, well below the baseline projections of 5.1% and 4.8%.
• The decline is attributed to reduced demand for transport and logistics services due to lower goods trade volumes, and subdued discretionary spending on travel.
• Travel is expected to slow to 2.6% in 2025 (down from 4.2% baseline) but rebound to 4.7% in 2026.

Key Information

Trade Policy Uncertainty and Tariffs

• The suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the US has led to a revised forecast that reflects a more pessimistic outlook.
• If the reciprocal tariffs are reinstated, they could reduce global merchandise trade growth by an additional 0.6 percentage points.
• A wider spread of TPU could further reduce growth by 0.8 percentage points, significantly affecting LDCs.

Trade Trends and Statistics

• World merchandise exports in 2024 reached $24.43 trillion, up 2% from 2023.
• China was the largest exporter ($3.58 trillion) and the US the largest importer ($3.36 trillion).
• LDCs had a 1.12% share in global merchandise exports in 2024, up from previous years.

Services Trade Analysis

• Commercial services exports in 2024 reached $8.69 trillion, up 9% from the previous year.
• Transport services are expected to grow by 0.5% in 2025, down from the baseline of 2.9%.
• Digitally delivered services are also expected to see a decline in growth due to the broader economic slowdown.

Appendix Highlights

• Appendix Tables 1–5 provide detailed statistics on leading exporters and importers for both merchandise and commercial services, including data excluding intra-EU trade.
• These tables highlight the concentration of trade among major economies and the role of LDCs in global trade flows.

Conclusion

The global trade outlook has shifted significantly due to recent policy changes and heightened uncertainty. While merchandise trade is expected to contract in 2025, it will recover in 2026. Commercial services trade, although less directly impacted by tariffs, is also expected to see slower growth. LDCs may benefit from trade diversion, but the broader global economy faces a reduced growth trajectory. The report underscores the need for continued monitoring and policy adjustments to mitigate the negative impacts of trade tensions.