2026-02-02-联合国贸易发展委员-联合国贸易发展委员会-全球贸易更新（2026年1月）_2026年重新定义全球贸易的主要趋势（英）_22页_1mb

2026 Global Trade Trends Summary

Core Content

2026 marks a pivotal year for global trade, characterized by a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, economic slowdowns, digital transformation, and sustainability imperatives. These trends are redefining how trade is conducted and will have significant implications for developing countries, particularly in terms of policy adaptation, competitiveness, and integration into global value chains.

Key Trends

1. Global Economic and Trade Growth Slows

• Global Growth: Projected at 2.6% in 2025 and 2026, with developing countries (excluding China) expected to grow at 4.2% in 2026.
• Major Economies: US growth slows to 1.5%, China to 4.6%, and Europe faces modest demand.
• Impact on Trade: Slower growth leads to weaker export demand, tighter financial conditions, and increased policy uncertainty.
• Challenges for Developing Countries: Commodity-dependent economies face price volatility, while access to external finance becomes more constrained.

2. WTO Reform at a Crossroads

• MC14 in Cameroon: The 14th WTO Ministerial Conference will address geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties.
• Developing Countries' Interests: Focus on agriculture, e-commerce, and the potential integration of the IFDA agreement.
• SDT Importance: Special and Differential Treatment is vital for industrialization and structural transformation.
• Climate and Trade: Discussions on subsidies and eco-labelling will influence future trade policies.

3. Tariffs on the Rise

• Protectionism: Governments use tariffs as strategic tools, increasing policy uncertainty.
• Effects on Trade: Tariffs raise import costs, weaken demand, and shift sourcing patterns.
• Vulnerable Economies: Smaller, less diversified economies face greater risks from tariff hikes and policy volatility.
• Trade Volatility: Persistent tariff changes may reduce global trade efficiency and growth.

4. Value Chains Reconfigure

• Shift in Production: Firms are diversifying suppliers, near-shoring, and vertically integrating to manage risks.
• Geopolitical Impact: Trade patterns are shifting, with some hubs and routes growing faster than others.
• Opportunities and Risks: Developing countries with strong infrastructure and policies can attract investment, while those reliant on low-cost labor may be marginalized.

5. Servicification of Trade

• Services Growth: Services exports grow faster than goods, now accounting for 27% of global trade.
• Digital Services: Represent 56% of global services exports, growing at 7.1% annually.
• Digital Divide: LDCs lag significantly in digital service exports (16% vs. 61% in developed economies).
• Trade Agreements: Digital trade protocols and e-commerce agreements are shaping future trade strategies.

6. South-South Trade Surge

• Trade Expansion: South-South trade has grown rapidly, reaching $6.8 trillion by 2025.
• Asia's Role: Regional value chains in East and Southeast Asia drive much of the South-South trade.
• Regional Integration: Africa and Latin America are increasingly turning to each other for trade, despite underdeveloped interregional trade.
• Resilience: Strengthening South-South linkages is key to building resilience in global trade networks.

7. Sustainable Trade Gains Momentum

• Environmental Integration: Environmental governance becomes central to trade and economic planning.
• COP31 in Türkiye: Expected to focus on accelerating the energy transition and reducing carbon emissions.
• Green Economy: Clean energy technologies and carbon pricing mechanisms are reshaping trade flows.
• EU Carbon Border Adjustment: Will affect imports without equivalent carbon pricing, particularly from LDCs.

8. Critical Minerals and Geopolitical Risks

• Price Correction: Critical minerals prices declined from 2021-2022 peaks, but remain volatile.
• Supply Risks: Export controls and licensing regimes are intensifying, especially from resource-rich countries.
• Investment Trends: Critical minerals investment remains constrained, with policy-driven funding in the EU and US offsetting weak market incentives.
• Supply Chain Fragmentation: Potential for increased fragmentation and reduced efficiency in 2026.

9. Agricultural Trade and Food Security

• Agricultural Importance: Food and agricultural products make up one-third of commodity exports.
• Vulnerability: Agricultural markets are highly susceptible to shocks such as conflicts, weather, and trade restrictions.
• Fertilizer Prices: Surged in 2025 and remain high, increasing production costs globally.
• Developing Countries: Face greater exposure to price volatility and need support for domestic agriculture and food security.

10. Trade Regulations Tighten

• Non-Tariff Measures (NTMs): Increasingly used to address security, public health, and environmental concerns.
• Protectionism: Around 18,000 new discriminatory trade measures recorded since 2020.
• Compliance Burden: Smaller economies face higher procedural and compliance costs.
• Need for Flexibility: Global trade rules must be more flexible, with targeted technical assistance to ensure inclusive implementation.

Conclusion

2026 presents a critical juncture for global trade, with developing countries at the forefront of both challenges and opportunities. As trade growth slows, the role of services and digital trade expands, while sustainability and critical minerals become central to economic resilience. Policymakers must navigate these shifts with adaptive strategies to ensure inclusive and sustainable growth.