国家财富的变迁_评估全球水产养殖业的全球贡献_42页_1mb

报告摘要

Summary of "The CHANGING WEALTH OF NATIONS" - Estimating the Global Contribution of Aquaculture

Core Content

This report explores the feasibility of including aquaculture in the World Bank's The Changing Wealth of Nations (CWON), a framework that measures national wealth by incorporating natural capital accounts. Currently, aquaculture is not included in CWON, but the study suggests that it can be integrated using existing accounting standards and methodologies.

Main Points

Aquaculture's Role in Wealth Generation: Aquaculture has become a major contributor to global food production, providing over half of the world's aquatic production in 2020, valued at $281.5 billion. It is expected to grow further, especially in Asia, where per capita consumption of aquatic products has more than doubled since the 1960s.
Methodological Approach: The study uses the Resource Rent and Net Present Value (NPV) methods, as recommended by the System of National Accounting (SNA) and System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA), to estimate aquaculture's contribution to national wealth. These methods account for the economic value of aquaculture by subtracting operating and capital costs from production value.
Challenges in Data Collection: A significant challenge is the lack of comprehensive data on operating and capital costs for aquaculture systems. Most estimates rely on research data and key contacts rather than publicly available datasets.
Pilot Countries: The study focuses on six pilot countries with significant aquaculture industries and sufficient data: Norway, Japan, Egypt, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Ecuador. These countries represent a wide range of aquaculture systems, including finfish, shellfish, and seaweed farming.
Resource Rent Estimates: Resource rent estimates for aquaculture systems in these countries were generally positive and significant. Notable examples include:
- Norway: Salmon and rainbow trout farming showed consistent positive resource rents.
- Egypt: Tilapia and mullet polyculture demonstrated substantial contributions.
- Ecuador: Shrimp farming in ponds had positive resource rent.
- Bangladesh: Carp, tilapia, and pangasius farming showed varying results.
- Japan: Marine finfish, bivalve mollusks, and seaweed farming had variable estimates.
- Indonesia: Shrimp, tilapia, carp, milkfish, and pangasius farming showed diverse outcomes.
Global Extrapolation: A back-of-the-envelope estimate suggests that aquaculture could have a global asset value of $1 trillion, which is four times the value of marine fish stocks currently included in CWON.
Key Recommendation: To systematically include aquaculture in future editions of CWON, a coordinated data collection system must be developed, incorporating methodologies from SNA and SEEA. This system should involve national statisticians, economists, and technical specialists.
Future Steps: The study recommends further data collection efforts, especially for the top 12 aquaculture-producing countries, which account for 75% of global aquaculture production. This would enable a more accurate and consistent estimation of aquaculture wealth for all major producers.

Key Information

Aquaculture Definition: The farming of aquatic organisms, including fish, mollusks, crustaceans, and aquatic plants. It involves intervention in the rearing process and ownership of the stock.
Ecosystem Accounting: The SEEA-EA framework classifies aquaculture as a biomass provisioning service, emphasizing the relationship between ecosystem assets and aquaculture output. However, the valuation of ecosystem services is complex and often requires indirect methods such as the Residual Value Method (RVM).
Data Constraints: Publicly available data on aquaculture is limited, especially regarding operating and capital costs. Most data used in this report comes from research and key contacts, not from national databases.
Pilot Country Selection: Countries were selected based on the availability of detailed data and the simplicity of their aquaculture systems. Norway, for example, has a well-developed statistical system and is a major producer of salmon and trout.
Global Importance: The top 12 aquaculture-producing countries are crucial for representing global aquaculture wealth, as they account for the majority of production by value.

Conclusion

The study concludes that while aquaculture can be included in CWON using resource rent and NPV methods, it requires a robust and standardized data collection system. The current estimates, based on pilot countries, suggest that aquaculture is a valuable and growing component of global natural capital. Future work should focus on expanding the dataset and ensuring consistency and comparability across countries and species.

Key Figures and Tables

Figure 1.1: World capture fisheries and aquaculture production, 1950–2020. Shows the growth of aquaculture over time.
Figure 1.2: Aquaculture production value in the top 12 countries, by species group, 2020. Highlights the dominance of China and other countries.
Figure 1.3: Relationship between ecosystem assets, services, and benefits. Explains the framework used to assess aquaculture's contribution to wealth.
Table 2.1: Resource rent estimates for Norwegian salmon and trout aquaculture, 1995–2020.
Table 2.2: Resource rent estimates for Egyptian tilapia and mullet aquaculture, 2015–2020.
Table 2.3: Resource rent estimate for shrimp in Ecuador, 2020.
Table 2.4: Resource rent estimates for Japan's marine finfish, bivalve mollusks, and seaweed, 2020.
Table 2.5: Resource rent estimates for Bangladesh's carp polyculture and pangasius/tilapia, 2019 and 2017.
Table 2.6: Resource rent estimates for Indonesia's shrimp, tilapia, carp, milkfish, and pangasius, 2022.
Table 3.1: Summary of resource rent estimates for pilot countries.
Table 3.2: Global country and species combinations worth more than $1 billion in 2020.