2009年-世界发展银行全球_Montenegro___Public_Expenditure_and_Financial_Accountability_Assessment_68页_1mb

Public Expenditure and Financial Accountability Assessment of Montenegro (July 2009)

Core Content Overview

This report presents the Public Financial Management (PFM) Performance Report (PFM-PR) for Montenegro, conducted by the PEFA team in 2009. It evaluates the performance of the country's PFM systems, identifies weaknesses, and outlines prospects for reform, especially in the context of Montenegro's aspirations for EU membership.

Main Sections and Key Findings

(i) Integrated Assessment of PFM Performance

Budget Credibility (PI-1 to PI-4)

• PI-1: Aggregate expenditure out-turn compared to original approved budget - B
• PI-2: Composition of expenditure out-turn compared to original approved budget - C
• PI-3: Aggregate revenue out-turn compared to original approved budget - A
• PI-4: Stock and monitoring of expenditure payment arrears - D

Summary: Montenegro's actual expenditures and revenues have significantly deviated from approved budgets over 2005-2007, mainly due to higher-than-expected economic growth from FDI and domestic credit expansion. While revenue collection was accurate, the surplus in 2007 led to increased current costs and tax cuts, which may be hard to reverse in case of economic slowdown. Downstream PFM issues, such as execution, reporting, and audit, further undermine the credibility of the budget.

Comprehensiveness and Transparency (PI-5 to PI-10)

• PI-5: Classification of the budget - B
• PI-6: Comprehensiveness of budget documentation - B
• PI-7: Extent of unreported government operations - D+
• PI-8: Transparency of inter-governmental fiscal relations - B
• PI-9: Oversight of fiscal risk from other public sector entities - C+
• PI-10: Public access to fiscal information - A

Summary: Budget classification is sound, using GFS and COFOG standards. Budget information is generally transparent, but the lack of consolidated fiscal risk monitoring from AGAs and PEs, and the absence of financial information for in-kind donor projects, hinder comprehensiveness.

Policy-Based Budgeting (PI-11 and PI-12)

• PI-11: Orderliness and participation in the annual budget process - B
• PI-12: Multi-year fiscal planning and budgeting - C+

Summary: The annual budget calendar is clear and respected, but budget circulars lack ceilings, limiting spending units' ability to frame their requests. Multi-year planning is weak, with incomplete costing and poor links between estimates and annual budgets.

Predictability and Control in Budget Execution (PI-13 to PI-21)

• PI-13: Transparency of taxpayer obligations - A
• PI-14: Effectiveness of taxpayer registration and assessment - B
• PI-15: Tax collection effectiveness - C+
• PI-16: Predictability of fund availability - A
• PI-17: Recording and management of cash, debt, and guarantees - B
• PI-18: Payroll controls effectiveness - C+
• PI-19: Procurement efficiency and controls - B
• PI-20: Internal controls for non-salary expenditure - D+
• PI-21: Internal audit effectiveness - C+

Summary: Revenue collection is efficient and transparent, with good cash and debt management. However, expenditure controls are weak, especially in terms of commitment controls and internal audit. Procurement systems have improved legally but lack institutional capacity and data robustness.

Accounting, Recording, and Reporting (PI-22 to PI-25)

• PI-22: Timeliness and regularity of accounts reconciliation - A
• PI-23: Availability of information on resources for service delivery units - A
• PI-24: Quality and timeliness of in-year budget reports - C+
• PI-25: Quality and timeliness of annual financial statements - C+

Summary: Accounting systems are good and accurate, but financial reporting lacks sufficient detail for meaningful comparison with original budgets. Annual financial statements are not in line with recognized public sector accounting standards.

External Scrutiny and Audit (PI-26 to PI-28)

• PI-26: Scope and follow-up of external audit - C+
• PI-27: Legislative scrutiny of annual budget law - B
• PI-28: Legislative scrutiny of external audit reports - D+

Summary: External audit is improving, with the establishment of the State Audit Institution (SAI) in 2004, but the SAI lacks capacity and coverage. Legislative scrutiny is present but limited due to under-staffing of the relevant committee.

Donor Practices (D-1 to D-3)

• D-1: Predictability of Direct Budget Support - N/A
• D-2: Financial information from donors for budgeting - C
• D-3: Proportion of aid managed via national procedures - D

Summary: Donor-financed government projects are well-supported with financial data, but in-kind projects lack transparency. The majority of aid is managed under donor procedures, not national ones.

(ii) Impact of PFM Weaknesses

Macro-Fiscal Discipline

• The frequent in-year revisions to budgets due to FDI inflows have created structural rigidities, especially in wage management.
• The absence of consolidated fiscal risk monitoring increases the likelihood of fiscal risks from AGAs and PEs.
• Limited integration of medium-term fiscal estimates with sector policies and annual budgets may lead to unsustainable fiscal frameworks.
• Weak internal controls and audit increase the risk of deficits, arrears, and debts.
• The lack of a robust financial reporting framework could lead to unreported fiscal risks.

Strategic Allocation of Resources

• Inaccurate budget estimates may result in unmet financial expectations, undermining key policies.
• Incomplete information on capital project recurrent costs hampers strategic planning.
• The short-term nature of annual budgets limits the ability to adjust for new policy initiatives.
• Weak internal controls increase the risk of unauthorized payments and misallocation of resources.
• Limited capacities of SAI and Parliament reduce government accountability.

Operational Efficiency

• Significant budget revisions may impact the efficiency of personnel and service delivery.
• Poor procurement data and a non-independent complaints system may lead to inefficient and costly procurement.
• Weak internal controls increase opportunities for corruption and leakages.
• The lack of a robust financial reporting framework reduces audit effectiveness.
• Limited SAI and parliamentary capacity reduces accountability for efficient resource use.

(iii) Prospects for Reform Planning and Implementation

Montenegro's central priority is EU membership, with the Stabilization and Association Agreement (SAA) signed in 2007 marking a major step. The National Program for Integration to the European Union (NPI) outlines reforms for the first three years post-SAA.

Key Reform Efforts:

• Establishment of the State Audit Institution, Directorate for Public Procurement, and Commission for Public Procurement Supervision.
• Introduction of a medium-term fiscal framework and capital budgeting.
• Consolidation of extra-budgetary funds and public enterprises into the state budget.
• Initial program budgeting.
• Debt management improvements through surplus reallocation.

Reform Strategies:

• Strategy of Public Administration Reform (2003)
• Strategy of Public Internal Financial Control (2007)
• Public Internal Financial Control Law (2008)
• Strategy of Management of Public Debt (2008)

Planned Reforms:

• Improved budget planning and functional analysis.
• Strengthening of capital budgeting.

Conclusion: The PFM reforms implemented by the Government of Montenegro have laid a solid foundation for future improvements. A PEFA assessment in 2001 would have likely shown a much better performance, highlighting the progress made since then.

Summary of Key Indicators

Methodology and Scope

• The assessment is based on 28 PFM indicators and three donor-related indicators.
• It is a backward-looking evaluation based on data from 2005-2007.
• The PEFA team included both government and development partners.
• The report is based on data collected up to May 2008 and includes interviews with stakeholders.

Conclusion

The PFM system in Montenegro has made progress, especially in areas like revenue collection and institutional reforms. However, there are significant weaknesses in budget execution, financial reporting, and audit capacity. These weaknesses affect macro-fiscal discipline, strategic resource allocation, and operational efficiency. The report emphasizes the need for further reforms to ensure fiscal sustainability, transparency, and efficiency, especially as Montenegro moves toward EU integration.