2005年-ECB欧洲央行_Improvements_to_euro_area_GDP_and_national_accounts_2页_103kb

Box 5: Improvements to Euro Area GDP and National Accounts

Core Content

On 30 November 2005, Eurostat introduced significant changes to the annual and quarterly national account statistics of the euro area, aimed at improving the quality and international comparability of these statistics. These changes included the introduction of chain-linked volume measures and a new treatment of financial services indirectly measured (FISIM).

Main Points

• Chain-linked volume measures were introduced for the first time in the euro area, with the index set to 100 in the reference year 2000. These measures allow for more accurate tracking of real GDP growth over time by adjusting for price changes.

• Annual and quarterly GDP volume growth is now presented in three formats:

  1. Chained index series
  2. Chained level series (chained index series multiplied by the current price figure for the reference year 2000)
  3. Quarterly or annual growth rates

• Country weights for GDP volume growth are updated annually, based on the previous year's data. For data before 1999, weights are determined using exchange rates of the previous year. Previously, a fixed base year (1995) was used.

• FISIM (Financial Intermediation Services Indirectly Measured) was reclassified in the new treatment. Previously, FISIM was treated as intermediate consumption, but now part of it is allocated to final consumption and exports, increasing GDP levels.

• The introduction of chain-linking did not result in large revisions in GDP levels, as the source data used for European aggregates are up-to-date and officially published national data.

• Some countries, such as Germany, Spain, and the Netherlands, had already implemented chain-linking of quarterly data earlier in 2005, while others, like France and Italy, were expected to do so in 2006, potentially leading to further revisions in the future.

• Chart A illustrates that the annual GDP volume growth for the euro area did not change significantly compared to the second release for Q2 2005, which already incorporated chain-linking or other benchmark revisions from several Member States.

• Chart B shows that the seasonally and working-day-adjusted quarterly GDP volume growth was only slightly revised after the changes.

Key Information

• Chain-linking improves the accuracy of GDP growth measures by accounting for changes in price levels over time.
• FISIM revisions increased euro area GDP levels by an average of +1.2%, but had negligible effects on volume growth rates.
• Country-specific weighting structures are used for compiling GDP volume growth data, which may lead to different revisions across Member States.
• The new method is not additive, meaning that the sum of components does not equal total GDP, unlike the unchained series.
• The residual between GDP and the sum of its components varies over time, ranging from -0.1% in 2004 to +0.3% in 1995.

Implications

The changes introduced by Eurostat aim to enhance the consistency and reliability of euro area GDP data with national accounts. They also improve international comparability by aligning with the System of National Accounts (SNA). While the overall impact on GDP levels is notable, the effect on growth rates is minimal, which is important for economic analysis and policy-making.