世界发展银行-Uganda-_-How-Long-Do-the-Effects-of-Cash-Grants-Last__4页_607kb

Uganda: How Long Do the Effects of Cash Grants Last?

Core Content

This summary discusses the long-term impacts of cash grants on employment, income, and well-being in Uganda, based on a 9-year evaluation of the Youth Opportunities Program (YOP). The study, conducted by Christopher Blattman, Nathan Fiala, and Sebastian Martinez, was supported by the Spanish Impact Evaluation Fund (SIEF) and the World Bank.

Main Findings

• Short-term Impact:
  Cash grants significantly improved earnings, employment in skilled trades, and consumption for young adults in the first few years.

  • Recipients were 65% more likely to work in skilled trades.
  • They earned 38% more than the control group.
  • They worked 17% more hours per week.
  • They were 40–50% more likely to register a business, pay taxes, and keep business records.
  • Their consumption (food and medicine) was 11% higher.
  • They had more durable assets, such as better housing and livestock.

• Gender Differences:

  • Women experienced the most significant gains, with 73% higher incomes than the control group.
  • Men saw 29% higher incomes.
  • The difference was attributed to the lower baseline incomes of women.

• Long-term Fade-out:

  • After nine years, the positive impacts on earnings and consumption largely faded out.
  • The control group caught up with grant recipients in terms of income and hours worked.
  • The main lasting effects were on job choice and assets, with grant recipients still more likely to be in skilled trades.

• Health and Education Outcomes:

  • There was no long-term impact on the health or education of the children of grant recipients.
  • However, children born after the grant was received were more functional (e.g., walking, talking, using the toilet) compared to those born before or to those in the control group.

Key Insights

• Cash grants can be an effective tool for improving income and employment in the medium to short term.
• Lack of oversight did not lead to misuse or squandering of funds.
• The program helped recipients invest in vocational training and business materials.
• Long-term sustainability of cash grants is limited, as the control group eventually caught up.
• Job choice and assets were more durable outcomes, suggesting lasting behavioral changes.
• Health and education outcomes for children were not significantly improved by the grants.

Program Context

• The Youth Opportunities Program was part of the Northern Uganda Social Action Fund (NUSAF), which aimed to support economic development in post-conflict northern Uganda.
• The program targeted young adults (ages 16–35) who faced limited access to credit and microfinance.
• Grants were given to groups and distributed by a management committee, with no formal follow-up or accountability mechanisms.
• The average grant was US $7,497 per group (about $382 per person in 2008 dollars).

Evaluation Methodology

• The study used random assignment to determine which groups received grants.
• Researchers tracked 2,675 individuals over nine years, conducting surveys at baseline (2008), first follow-up (2010–2011), second follow-up (2012), and third follow-up (2017).
• Tracking rates were high: 91% after two years, 84% after four years, and 87% after nine years.

Conclusion

While cash grants can quickly boost income and employment, their long-term effectiveness is limited. The program did not lead to sustained improvements in health or education for recipients or their children, but it did influence career choices and asset accumulation. These findings highlight the importance of context and design in economic development programs and suggest that adjustments or different targeting may be needed to achieve longer-lasting benefits.