2018年-世界发展银行全球_Republic_of_Zambia_Systematic_Country_Diagnostic_131页_7mb

Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Zambia (Report No. 124032-ZM)

Core Content Overview

This Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Zambia, prepared by the Country Management Unit (CMU) under the supervision of Paul Noumba Um and Ina-Marlene Ruthenberg, provides a comprehensive analysis of the country's poverty and inequality challenges, growth and employment trends, and the structural constraints that hinder sustainable development. It also outlines key knowledge gaps and future research directions.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Poverty and Inequality Context

• Economic Growth: Zambia has experienced strong GDP growth since the early 2000s, averaging 7.4% annually from 2004 to 2014, driven by macroeconomic stability, debt relief, and investment in social sectors.
• Poverty Persistence: Despite GDP growth, national poverty and inequality have remained high, with urban areas benefiting more than rural ones. The urban poverty incidence is less than half that of rural areas.
• Demographic Shift: Zambia is one of the youngest countries globally, with a population growing at 2.8% per year. The working-age population is expected to more than double between 2015 and 2050, requiring over 10 million new jobs by 2050.
• Urbanization: While urban poverty has decreased, growth in small towns and cities has been sluggish, contributing to uneven territorial development.
• High Fertility Rates: Fertility remains at 5.3 children per woman, leading to high maternal mortality and low female economic participation. Reducing fertility could improve labor supply and female participation in the future.

2. Growth, Macroeconomic, and Employment Trends

• Growth Drivers: Growth has been driven by the mining sector, which accounts for 70% of exports and 12% of GDP. FDI is heavily concentrated in mining.
• Sectoral Contributions: Mining and agriculture have been the main contributors to GDP growth. However, the benefits of growth have not been evenly distributed.
• Employment Issues: Employment is largely concentrated in the mining sector and urban areas. Many enterprises do not expand beyond the household level due to poor infrastructure, low skills, and high costs of doing business.
• Macroeconomic Volatility: Copper price fluctuations have caused macroeconomic instability, with a lack of instruments to smooth the economic cycle leading to volatile public and private investment flows.
• Fiscal Challenges: The government has not built fiscal buffers and has often run budget deficits, exacerbating macroeconomic volatility. The absence of a stabilization fund has made fiscal management difficult.

3. Constraints to Inclusion and Growth

• Agricultural Productivity: Small-scale farmers face low productivity and limited access to agricultural inputs. The Farmer's Input Support Program (FISP) has had limited success in addressing this.
• Education and Health: The quality and inclusiveness of education and health services are poor, especially for the poor and women. These sectors have not provided sufficient opportunities for the most vulnerable.
• Fiscal Policy: The poor receive insufficient benefits from fiscal policy due to vested interests and limited safety nets. Policies often entrench existing inequalities rather than reduce them.
• Environmental Degradation: Rapid deforestation and pollution from mining have created significant environmental liabilities, affecting communities' health and resilience to climate shocks.
• Weak Governance: While Zambia has experienced political stability, governance remains weak, with limited accountability and institutional capacity. This has affected the effectiveness of public resource allocation and policy implementation.

4. Sustainable Development and Future Research

• Environmental and Fiscal Sustainability: The current growth model is not sustainable due to environmental degradation and volatile fiscal outcomes. A shift towards more inclusive and diversified growth is needed.
• Knowledge Gaps: The report highlights the need for further research on the impact of copper price volatility, the effectiveness of fiscal policies, and the role of private sector development in reducing poverty.
• Policy Recommendations: There is a need for improved governance, better infrastructure, and more inclusive policies to ensure that growth benefits all sectors and regions of the country.

Key Hypotheses and Findings

Hypothesis 1: Extractives-Based Growth

• Mining, particularly copper, remains a central driver of growth but has not translated into broad-based poverty reduction.
• The sector is capital-intensive and does not employ a large number of people, contributing to inequality.
• Mining revenues have increased significantly, but concerns about illicit transfers and lost revenues persist.

Hypothesis 2: Uneven Territorial Development

• Growth has been geographically concentrated, particularly in the Copperbelt and Lusaka regions.
• Northern, Western, and Luapula Provinces have remained the poorest, highlighting the need for more balanced regional development.
• The low productivity in agriculture and poor quality of non-agricultural jobs have contributed to persistent poverty.

Conclusion

Zambia's economic growth has been impressive, but it has not translated into significant poverty reduction or improved inclusion. The country faces challenges related to extractives-based growth, uneven territorial development, and weak governance. Sustainable development requires a shift towards more inclusive growth, improved infrastructure, and better policy design to ensure that the benefits of economic growth are shared equitably across regions and populations.