20260320-招银国际-多点数智-02586.HK-FY25_review_investing_in_AI_to_drive_dual_growth_in_revenue_and_profitability_5页_778kb

Dmall Inc (2586 HK) FY25 Review and FY26 Outlook

Core Content and Key Highlights

Dmall Inc (2586 HK) reported strong financial results for FY25, with total revenue growing by 20% YoY to RMB2.23bn, in line with expectations. Adjusted net profit surged by 583% YoY to RMB203mn, exceeding the previous estimate of RMB134mn, driven by operating leverage and effective cost control. The company is focusing on leveraging AI to drive both revenue growth and operational efficiency.

Main Points

• Revenue Growth:

  • FY25 revenue reached RMB2.23bn, up 19.8% YoY.
  • FY26E revenue forecast is RMB2.62bn, with a 17.7% YoY growth.
  • FY27E and FY28E revenue forecasts are RMB3.00bn and RMB3.35bn, respectively, showing a slowing growth rate over time.

• Profitability:

  • Adjusted net profit in FY25 was RMB203mn, a 583% increase YoY.
  • FY26E adjusted net profit is forecasted at RMB338mn, up 66.2% YoY.
  • FY27E and FY28E adjusted net profit forecasts are RMB518mn and RMB705mn, respectively.
  • Operating margin is expected to rise from 13.0% in FY24A to 23.2% in FY28E.

• AI Integration:

  • AI is a central focus for Dmall, with revenue from the AI business reaching RMB64.4mn in FY25.
  • The company deployed 10 major retail AI application scenarios in 2025, including product selection and dynamic pricing.
  • In FY26, Dmall will integrate AI into its R&D system and expand AI agent offerings like "AI Merchandise Agent" and "AI Store Agent."

• Strategic Initiatives:

  • FY26 will see a strategic shift in the use of unutilized net proceeds from blockchain to AI, accelerating AI development.
  • The company plans to expand into overseas markets while deepening its domestic presence.

• Valuation and Target Price:

  • The target price is set at HK$10.80, based on a 3.0x FY26E EV/sales multiple.
  • This is a downward adjustment from the previous target price of HK$16.00, reflecting the sector's valuation decline.
  • The current price is HK$7.62, with a 41.7% upside potential.

• Market Position:

  • Dmall's P/S ratio is projected to decrease from 3.3 in FY24A to 1.8 in FY28E.
  • The company's valuation multiple is in line with the average EV/sales of China SaaS peers.

Financial Summary

Shareholding and Market Data

• Shareholding Structure:

  • Celestial: 47.0%
  • Vigorous Link: 8.3%

• Stock Data:

  • Market Cap: HK$6,913.2mn
  • 12-month Price Performance: -14.4% absolute, -10.3% relative
  • 52-week High/Low: HK$12.86 / HK$6.28

Key Business Forecasts

• AI Revenue:

  • FY25: RMB64.4mn
  • FY26E: RMB64mn (likely to grow further with AI integration)

• Revenue by AI Solutions:

  • AI Retail Core Solution: RMB1.06bn (up 22% YoY)
  • AI Retail Value-Added Services: RMB1.16bn (up 18% YoY)

• Strategic Focus for FY26:

  • Upgrade R&D system with AI
  • Implement AI agents to capture new growth opportunities
  • Expand into overseas markets while strengthening domestic presence

Analyst Recommendations

• Rating: BUY
• Target Price: HK$10.80
• Previous Target Price: HK$16.00
• Upside/Downside: 41.7%

Valuation Assumptions

Analysts

• Saiyi HE, CFA: (852) 3916 1739 | hesaiyi@cmbi.com.hk
• Wentao LU, CFA: luwentao@cmbi.com.hk
• Ye TAO, CFA: (852) 3850 5226 | franktao@cmbi.com.hk
• Shuyin GUO: (852) 3916 3716 | guoshuyin@cmbi.com.hk

Disclaimer

• This report is not investment advice and is intended for informational purposes only.
• CMBIGM does not provide individually tailored investment advice.
• The value of investments is uncertain and may fluctuate.
• Investors should consult a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.