2014年-世界发展银行全球_Estimating_the_Value_of_Human_Capital_within_the_World_Bank_Wealth_Accounting_Framework_13页_1mb

Summary of "Estimating the value of human capital within the World Bank wealth accounting framework"

Core Content

This working paper presents a method for estimating the value of human capital within the World Bank's comprehensive wealth accounting framework. The approach integrates human capital into the total wealth equation by valuing it as the present value of future returns, considering both education and health as key determinants.

Main Points

1. Human Capital Valuation Framework

• Human capital (H) is defined as the present value of the returns to education and health.
• The total wealth equation includes manufactured capital (K), human capital (H), and natural capital (N).
• The value of human capital is calculated as:
  $$
  H = \sum_{t=0}^{T} L \cdot w (h - 1) (1 + \delta)^{-t}
  $$
• $L$ is the labor force size, $w$ is the wage rate, $h$ is human capital per worker, and $\delta$ is the social discount rate.
• The shadow price of human capital is derived from the wage premium for workers with higher human capital.

2. Components of Human Capital

• Human capital per worker is modeled as $h = A e^{\phi n}$, where $n$ is years of schooling and $A$ is a health adjustment factor.
• The health adjustment factor $A$ is based on adult survival rate ($\nu$) with the formula $A = e^{\rho \nu}$.
• The rate of return to education ($\phi$) is determined using different methods:
  • Uniform rate of 8.5%.
  • Piece-wise linear function based on schooling levels.
  • Income-level variation with $\phi = 0.109$ for low income, $\phi = 0.107$ for middle income, and $\phi = 0.074$ for high income countries.

3. Data and Methodology

• Data sources include:
  • Barro and Lee (2013) for schooling.
  • ILO for labor force statistics.
  • Penn World Table for wages.
  • UNESCO for educational system durations.
  • WDI for adult survival rate and population data.
• The calculation is performed for five-year age groups between 15 and 64.
• The social discount rate $\delta$ is set at 4%.
• Volatility in rental prices is smoothed by using a five-year lagged average.

4. Results

• OECD Countries (2005):

  • Human capital per capita estimates are close to previous values by Hamilton and Liu (2013), but vary significantly based on the method used.
  • Method 1 (uniform rate) results are used as they align more closely with prior estimates.
  • Intangible capital is also included, with values ranging from 204,283 to 583,060 USD per capita.

• LAC Countries (1995-2010):

  • Human capital per capita has generally increased, with some exceptions like Colombia, Uruguay, and Venezuela.
  • Human capital typically constitutes the largest component of total wealth, with shares ranging from 26.3% to 60.2%.
  • Some countries, such as Bolivia and Chile, have higher shares of natural capital, which may lead to overestimation of total wealth.
  • Human capital volatility is influenced by wage changes, and is comparable to other assets like fossil fuels and minerals.

• Comparison with Education Spending:

  • Changes in human capital are often much larger than education spending, indicating that a cost-based approach underestimates actual changes.
  • Negative changes in human capital can occur due to factors like wage stagnation, reduced workforce, or declining life expectancy.

5. Human Capital Losses from Pollution and Sanitation Issues

• Human capital losses are estimated as the present value of foregone rents due to mortality and morbidity from air pollution (PM and ozone), household air pollution from solid fuel, and lack of clean water and sanitation.
• The formula used is:
  $$
  \Delta H = D \cdot w (h - 1)
  $$
  where $D$ is disability-adjusted life years (DALYs).
• Losses are calculated for each five-year cohort and summed, focusing on the working-age population (15-64).
• These losses are typically less than 1% of overall human capital changes or national income, indicating that they are not a major component of total wealth loss in LAC countries.

Key Information

• The valuation of human capital is integrated into the World Bank's comprehensive wealth accounting framework.
• Education and health are the primary factors influencing the value of human capital.
• The method accounts for the sensitivity of human capital valuation to the rate of return to education.
• The social discount rate is set at 4%.
• Human capital is a major component of total wealth in LAC countries, but its valuation is sensitive to assumptions.
• The approach provides a framework for estimating the economic impact of environmental factors on human capital, though these effects are relatively small in the LAC region.