2021-11-02-世界银行-2021年不断变化的国家财富_为未来管理资产（英）_504页_23mb

Summary of The Changing Wealth of Nations 2021

Core Content

The Changing Wealth of Nations 2021 is a comprehensive report by the World Bank that evaluates global, regional, and country-level trends in wealth from 1995 to 2018. It emphasizes the importance of measuring wealth beyond traditional economic indicators, incorporating natural capital, human capital, and social capital. The report also explores how wealth can be managed for sustainable development, resilience, and inclusiveness.

Main Messages

• Sustainability, Resilience, and Inclusiveness are critical for future economic development.
• Wealth accounts provide a broader perspective on national wealth by including natural, human, and social capital.
• Global wealth has been growing, but disparities persist across regions and income groups.
• Natural capital (including land, forests, and fisheries) plays a significant role in wealth composition, especially in low- and middle-income countries.
• Human capital is a key driver of economic growth and is affected by factors such as education, health, and the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Air pollution negatively impacts human capital by reducing life expectancy and productivity.
• Nonrenewable natural capital (fossil fuels, minerals) is a major component of wealth in some countries but poses risks due to climate change and resource depletion.
• Wealth accounting can support macroeconomic policy and fiscal management by identifying sustainable growth paths.
• Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) are used to adjust wealth values for international comparisons, providing a more accurate reflection of economic conditions.
• Renewable energy is increasingly recognized as a form of unaccounted wealth, with potential for long-term economic and environmental benefits.
• Social capital, such as trust and institutions, is a critical factor in economic performance and development outcomes.
• Data and methodology for wealth accounting are continuously evolving, with new approaches and tools being developed to improve accuracy and coverage.

Key Trends and Findings

Global and Regional Wealth Trends (1995–2018)

• Total global wealth has increased significantly over the past two decades.
• Per capita wealth has grown in many regions, but not uniformly. High-income countries generally have higher per capita wealth than low- and middle-income countries.
• Convergence in wealth is observed in some regions, indicating potential for catching up in economic development.
• Renewable natural capital (forests, agricultural land, water resources) constitutes a substantial share of total wealth, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.
• Climate change has had a measurable impact on the value of natural capital, especially in cropland and fisheries.
• Adjusted Net Savings (ANS) is a useful indicator for assessing sustainable wealth conversion, showing the balance between economic growth and capital depletion.

Natural Capital

• Land assets have seen changes in value and coverage, with significant trade-offs in low- and middle-income countries.
• Mangroves and fisheries (blue natural capital) are vital for coastal protection and food security, but their value is threatened by climate change and environmental degradation.
• Forests provide ecosystem services such as sediment retention and recreation, which are critical for both people and the economy.
• Nonrenewable natural capital (fossil fuels, minerals) is a major source of wealth in certain countries, but its depletion and the risk of stranded assets under climate policies are significant concerns.

Human Capital

• Human capital includes the value of education, health, and labor productivity, and is a crucial determinant of economic growth.
• Gender disparities in human capital are evident, with lower shares of human capital among women in many countries.
• The COVID-19 pandemic has had a severe impact on human capital, particularly in low-income countries, through disruptions in education and healthcare.
• Air pollution has been shown to reduce life expectancy and productivity, leading to a loss of human capital.

Wealth Accounting and Policy Implications

• Wealth accounts are being used to inform fiscal policy and macroeconomic management, helping to identify sustainable development pathways.
• Diversification of asset portfolios is more effective for long-term economic stability than mere export diversification.
• Institutional capital (quality of governance, rule of law) is strongly correlated with total wealth and economic performance.
• ESG frameworks (Environmental, Social, and Governance) are increasingly being integrated into wealth accounting to promote sustainable and inclusive growth.

Methodology and Data

• The report uses System of Environmental-Economic Accounting (SEEA) and System of National Accounts (SNA) to measure comprehensive wealth.
• Purchasing Power Parities (PPPs) are used to adjust for differences in the cost of living and provide more accurate international comparisons.
• Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) is analyzed to understand the relationship between economic growth and environmental degradation.
• Simulations using models like ENVISAGE v10 are employed to assess the future value of natural capital under different climate scenarios.

Conclusion and Future Work

• The report highlights the need for better data collection and methodological improvements in wealth accounting.
• It calls for policies that promote sustainability, resilience, and inclusiveness, particularly in countries with high nonrenewable resource wealth.
• International cooperation is essential for addressing global challenges such as climate change and the transition to low-carbon economies.
• Renewable energy and social capital are emerging as important areas for future research and policy development.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figures illustrate changes in total and per capita wealth, the composition of wealth by asset type, and the impact of climate change on natural capital.
• Tables provide detailed data on wealth distribution, growth rates, and the correlation between human capital, GDP, and institutional factors.

Notes and References

• The report includes notes that clarify methodological choices, data limitations, and policy implications.
• References to academic and policy literature support the findings and provide a foundation for further research.