2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Suriname_2018_Article_IV_Consultation_77页_2mb

2018 Article IV Consultation with Suriname Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Article IV consultation with Suriname, conducted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), focused on assessing the country's economic developments and policy framework. The consultation aimed to address fiscal sustainability, monetary policy modernization, banking sector resilience, and structural reforms to diversify the economy and promote long-term growth. The consultation was held in Paramaribo from September 24 to October 3, 2018, with the staff report finalized on November 1, 2018, and the Executive Board's consideration on November 16, 2018.

Main Points

Economic Recovery and Performance

• Suriname's economy stabilized after a deep recession (2015–16), with real GDP growth of 1.7% in 2017, driven by increased gold production and improved commodity prices.
• Inflation declined to single digits, and the current account deficit fell to nearly zero in 2017.
• Real GDP growth is projected at 2% in 2018 and is expected to gradually accelerate to 3% in the medium term.
• The unemployment rate has declined significantly, from 93.25% in 2016 to 8% in 2017.

Fiscal Challenges

• Fiscal deficits are large, and public debt has risen sharply, reaching 77% of GDP by end-2017.
• The primary fiscal deficit narrowed from 7.9% of GDP in 2015 to 6.2% in 2016, but the non-resource primary deficit (NRPB) widened to nearly 12% of GDP in 2017 due to higher public investment and fuel price increases.
• The 2019 budget proposed a significant increase in spending, which could lead to a double-digit deficit if implemented.
• The IMF's baseline scenario assumes a fiscal deficit of 9.2% of GDP in 2019, with a projected reduction to around 6% of GDP by 2023 following the introduction of a 15% VAT in 2021.

Monetary and Banking Sector

• The monetary framework lacks standard instruments, and the central bank needs to develop open market operations and standing facilities.
• The banking system has shown improvement in financial soundness indicators, but vulnerabilities remain, including high nonperforming loans (12% of gross loans in June 2018) and low average return on assets (0.5%).
• The average capital ratio increased from 5.5% in 2016 to 9.1% in 2018, indicating some progress.
• The IMF recommended strengthening the monetary framework by adopting reserve money targeting and improving the institutional and financial settings of the central bank.

Structural Reforms and Growth

• Structural reforms are necessary to boost productivity and diversify the economy, which is heavily dependent on the mineral sector.
• The authorities are working on reforms to improve the business climate, enhance private investment, and strengthen governance.
• Education and labor market flexibility are emphasized as priorities to support long-term growth and resilience.

Key Recommendations

• Fiscal Consolidation: Reduce energy subsidies, contain public wage bill, implement a broad-based value-added tax (VAT), and improve public financial management.
• Monetary Framework: Adopt reserve money targeting, develop open market operations, and strengthen the central bank's institutional and financial capacity.
• Banking Sector: Improve capital adequacy, reduce nonperforming loans, and develop a robust contingency plan and bank resolution framework.
• Structural Reforms: Promote non-mineral growth sectors, enhance the business environment, and strengthen social safety nets.

Executive Board Assessment

• The Executive Board generally agreed with the staff appraisal and welcomed Suriname's economic recovery.
• However, they noted ongoing challenges, including a weak fiscal position, rising public debt, underdeveloped monetary policy framework, and a vulnerable banking sector.
• They encouraged the authorities to use the current economic environment to build policy buffers and enhance resilience.
• The Board emphasized the importance of a fiscal framework focusing on the non-resource primary balance to ensure long-term sustainability.

Economic Indicators (Table 1)

Risks and Outlook

• Short-Term Risks: Tightening global financial conditions, potential shortfall in external financing, and vulnerabilities in the banking sector could pose challenges.
• Medium-Term Risks: Rising public debt, low international reserves, and lack of a non-mineral growth engine may threaten economic stability.
• Upward Risks: New oil or gold discoveries, as well as the authorities' fiscal framework strengthening and energy sector reforms, could boost growth and fiscal revenues.

Conclusion

The IMF's 2018 Article IV consultation with Suriname highlighted the need for fiscal consolidation, monetary reform, and structural changes to support sustainable growth. While the economy has shown signs of recovery, ongoing vulnerabilities in the fiscal and banking sectors, as well as heavy reliance on mineral exports, remain critical concerns. The Executive Board supported the staff's recommendations and encouraged the authorities to implement reforms to build resilience and promote long-term economic stability.