IMF-全球金融稳定报告（英文）-2018.10-99页-6mb

报告摘要

Global Financial Stability Report - A Decade after the Global Financial Crisis: Are We Safer?

Core Content

The Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR), published by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), evaluates the state of global financial stability ten years after the 2008 Global Financial Crisis (GFC). It highlights both the progress made and the emerging risks that still threaten the resilience of the global financial system.

Main Advancements

Regulatory Reforms: Significant improvements in banking regulation have been made, including stronger capital and liquidity requirements, stress testing, and macroprudential frameworks.
Banking Sector Resilience: Banks have become stronger with higher capital and liquidity buffers, and many jurisdictions now have mechanisms to address systemic risks.
Shadow Banking Control: Some of the risky activities that contributed to the GFC have been curtailed or transformed into safer market-based finance.
Global Cooperation: There has been a greater emphasis on international cooperation in financial regulation and stability.

Key Risks and Vulnerabilities

Emerging and Frontier Markets

Market Pressures: Emerging market economies have experienced capital outflows and currency depreciation due to rising U.S. interest rates, a stronger dollar, and trade tensions.
Portfolio Flows Reversal: Some countries have seen sharp reversals of portfolio flows, especially those with weak policy frameworks and large external imbalances.
Reserve Buffers: Many countries lack sufficient reserve buffers to withstand potential external shocks, increasing their vulnerability.
Debt Levels: Total non-financial sector debt in systemically important financial jurisdictions has reached an all-time high of 250% of GDP.

Global Financial Conditions

Tightening Trends: Over the past six months, global financial conditions have marginally tightened, with divergence between advanced and emerging market economies.
Growth-at-Risk (GaR): The report uses GaR to analyze risks to growth, indicating that a 5% probability of a medium-term debt portfolio outflow of $100 billion or more could occur in emerging markets (excluding China), similar in scale to the GFC.

Trade Tensions and Policy Uncertainty

Trade Disruptions: Escalating trade tensions may damage market sentiment and significantly harm global growth.
Policy Uncertainty: Political and policy uncertainty, such as potential no-deal Brexit or fiscal concerns in the euro area, could lead to increased risk aversion and adverse market reactions.

Policymaking Recommendations

Avoid Rollback of Reforms: Policymakers should not reverse regulatory reforms that have contributed to a more resilient financial system.
Enhance Resilience: A combination of macroprudential and microprudential policies should be used to manage risks, including countercyclical capital buffers.
Strengthen Institutional Frameworks: Countries need to maintain credible policy and institutional frameworks, improve governance, and enhance human and physical capital.
International Coordination: Greater coordination across borders is essential, especially in addressing new risks such as cybersecurity and financial technology.

New Vulnerabilities

Cybersecurity and Financial Technology: These represent new risks that have emerged outside the traditional regulatory perimeter.
Market Segmentation: Capital markets have become more segmented, with liquidity conditions varying across platforms and jurisdictions.
Underwriting Standards: Deterioration in underwriting standards continues, particularly in market-based finance, raising concerns about credit quality.

Conclusion

While the global financial system has made strides toward stability since the GFC, new vulnerabilities have emerged, and the system's resilience has yet to be fully tested. The report emphasizes the need for continued vigilance, proactive policy measures, and international cooperation to safeguard financial stability and promote sustainable economic growth.

Executive Summary Highlights

Progress: Regulatory frameworks have improved, and banks are stronger with better capital and liquidity buffers.
Risks: Trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and rising inequality could lead to increased financial instability.
Recommendations: Completion of the global regulatory reform agenda, avoidance of rollback, and proactive use of macroprudential tools are critical.
Complacency: Global financial markets appear complacent about the risk of a sharp tightening of financial conditions, despite the potential for increased volatility.

Special Features and Boxes

Box 1.1: The U.S. yield curve slope has implications for GDP growth distribution.
Box 1.2: Trade tensions are a growing risk to global growth.
Box 1.3: Brexit poses financial stability risks.
Box 1.4: Jumps and liquidity in the U.S. stock market are areas of concern.
Box 1.5: China's bond market is evolving with increased trading activity.
Box 1.6: Correspondent banking relationships are under scrutiny.
Box 2.1: The IMF plays a key role in global regulatory reform.
Box 2.2: Better data is essential for financial system reform.
Box 2.3: Resolution reforms are being implemented in several countries.

Tables and Figures

Table 1.SF.1: Compares centralized and decentralized banking models.
Table 1.SF.2: Details changes in the regulation of foreign branches.
Table 1.SF.3: Lists policy recommendations for managing banking group risks.
Figures 1.1–1.22: Illustrate market developments, financial conditions, debt levels, and liquidity risks across various regions and sectors.

Authorship and Editorial Notes

The report was coordinated by the Monetary and Capital Markets Department under Tobias Adrian, with contributions from numerous IMF staff members.
The report reflects data and analysis up to September 14, 2018, and has been updated to reflect corrections in the print version.
It draws on discussions with financial institutions, regulators, and academics.

Final Remarks from Executive Directors

Global Prospects: Economic growth remains strong, but risks have increased, especially in the short term.
Monetary Policy: Central banks should adjust monetary policy in line with inflation trends, either maintaining accommodation or gradually withdrawing support.
Structural Reforms: These are critical for boosting potential output and ensuring equitable growth.
Financial Stability: The report underscores the importance of maintaining financial stability through coordinated and proactive policy measures.

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