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Roland Berger: Shifting up a gear in the Trucking Industry

Core Content

The trucking industry is undergoing a significant transformation driven by automation, electrification, and digitalization. These technologies are set to revolutionize the sector by improving efficiency, reducing costs, and addressing long-standing challenges such as driver shortages, empty miles, and emissions regulations.

Main Challenges in the Trucking Industry

• High demand for freight transportation continues in the U.S., Europe, and China, with trucks handling the majority of freight tonnage.
• Fragmented industry landscape with a small number of large fleets and a long tail of small fleets and owner drivers.
• Inefficiency due to empty miles, which account for around 20% of total annual miles traveled in the U.S. and Europe.
• Driver shortages particularly affect long-haul operations, where retention and recruitment are difficult.
• Strict emissions regulations, including NOx, CO, particulate matter, and CO₂, are pushing the industry toward cleaner technologies.
• High operating costs due to the significant role of driver wages, fuel, and maintenance.

New Technologies

Automation

• Driverless trucks are expected to become a reality, with stages of automation ranging from Stage 0 (no automation) to Stage 5 (full automation).
• Stage 4 trucks, which can operate without a driver on highways, are considered a mid-term opportunity.
• Truck platooning is a key automation-related innovation, reducing fuel consumption by up to 10% and enabling connected braking.
• Stage 4 trucks are expected to be available by the middle of the next decade, with development costs estimated at around USD 1.1 billion.
• Legislation will play a crucial role in the adoption timeline, with states like Arizona and Florida leading in U.S. regulations.

Electrification

• Electric powertrains are becoming viable for short-range applications such as drayage and urban delivery.
• Battery costs are projected to drop from around USD 300/kWh to USD 100–140/kWh by 2025.
• Long-haul electrification is not yet economically feasible due to high battery costs and payload penalties.
• Electric trucks with a range of 250 miles (400 km) are expected to provide TCO benefits and payback within 5 years.
• Used drayage trucks pose a challenge for electrification due to their lower operating costs compared to new electric models.

Digitalization

• AI and data analytics are transforming the freight booking and optimization process.
• Freight booking platforms are emerging and are expected to disrupt the industry, similar to how online booking platforms disrupted travel.
• Standardized freight (e.g., dry van business) is most suitable for digital platforms, while less-than-truckload and specialized freight will be less impacted.
• Integration with transportation management systems (TMS) is critical for large-scale adoption.
• Booking platforms are likely to eliminate intermediaries and reduce margins from 15–20% to 0%.

Business Model: Transfer Hubs and Platooning

• The transfer hub model combines conventional trucks for first and last-mile deliveries with automated driverless trucks for long-haul, high-speed routes.
• Platooning reduces fuel consumption and improves efficiency, with savings of 7.5% per truck on average.
• Stage 4 automation eliminates driver costs, reduces maintenance and insurance expenses, and increases overall utilization.
• Transfer hubs require minimal infrastructure and are used to switch trailers between automated and conventional trucks.
• End-to-end savings for fleet operators range from 22% to 40%, depending on the length of the long-haul section and the distance of drays.

Implications for the Trucking Industry

• Increased freight volumes are expected due to efficiency gains and automation.
• Industry consolidation is likely as larger players with the resources to invest in automation and electrification will dominate.
• New tech players will enter the market, especially in automation and digital solutions.
• Freight rates may come under pressure due to cost reductions and increased competition.
• Legislation and public acceptance will determine the speed of adoption of autonomous vehicles.
• Urban logistics will evolve with new warehouse concepts (peri-urban and urban), which are more automated and flexible, respectively.

Our Recommendations

• Fleet operators must start adapting to the coming changes.
• Strategic preparation is essential, including investing in automation, electrification, and digitalization.
• Self-assessment is recommended: operators should ask themselves questions about cost structure, operational efficiency, and future market trends.
• Partnerships with technology providers and IT solution firms will be key to accelerating innovation and cost savings.
• Early adoption of digital booking platforms can help reduce dependency on intermediaries and improve transparency in the supply chain.

Key Figures and Trends

Conclusion

The trucking industry is on the cusp of a major transformation. Automation, electrification, and digitalization will drive cost reductions, efficiency improvements, and new business models. Fleet operators who adapt early will be better positioned to thrive in the evolving logistics ecosystem.