2008年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Staff_Guidance_Note_on_the_Application_of_the_Joint_Fund_33页_632kb

Summary of the Joint Fund-Bank Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries

Introduction and Country Coverage

• The Joint Fund-Bank Debt Sustainability Framework (DSF) aims to support low-income countries (LICs) in achieving development goals while avoiding future debt problems.
• It is designed for PRGF-eligible countries, including those that have received debt relief under the HIPC Initiative and MDRI.
• Country Debt Sustainability Analyses (DSAs) are prepared jointly by the IMF and World Bank staff, with close collaboration on baseline scenarios, alternative scenarios, debt distress ratings, and the write-up.
• DSAs are typically prepared annually for IDA-only countries, while non-IDA-only PRGF-eligible countries may use the middle-income country template if they have significant market financing access. However, close consultation with Bank staff is still recommended for countries with limited or no market access.
• The DSF should be viewed as an upstream tool to guide policy dialogue, not just an ex-post check. It requires frequent communication with authorities, MDBs, and donors.

Core Content of the DSA Framework

The framework is based on three pillars:

1. Debt and Debt-Service Projections: Analyzing future debt and debt-service dynamics under baseline, alternative, and stress test scenarios.
2. Country-Specific Debt-Burden Thresholds: Setting thresholds based on policy and institutional quality, measured by the CPIA index.
3. Borrowing and Lending Strategies: Recommending strategies to limit debt distress while maximizing resources for development goals.

Main Components of the DSA

A. Debt and Debt-Service Projections and Indicators

• The DSF requires projection of external and total public sector debt indicators.
• A pre-set template is used to insert historical and projected data for macroeconomic variables.
• The template is designed for a 20-year projection period and uses a uniform discount rate to calculate the present value (PV) of future debt-service obligations.
• If the CIRR deviates by more than 100 basis points for six months, the discount rate in the template is adjusted.
• The framework includes baseline scenarios, alternative scenarios, and stress tests to assess the country's vulnerability to shocks.

B. Country-Specific Debt-Burden Thresholds

• Debt-burden thresholds are policy-dependent and vary by policy performance.
• Countries are classified into three categories: Weak, Medium, and Strong policy based on CPIA scores.
• Thresholds are applied to external public debt and are measured against GDP, exports, and government revenues.
• A three-year moving average CPIA score is recommended to reduce volatility and uncertainty in the IDA grant share.

C. Debt Distress Risk

• Debt distress risk is assessed based on how current and projected debt indicators compare with thresholds.
• Risk classifications include:
  • Low risk: All indicators are below thresholds.
  • Moderate risk: Some indicators near or breach thresholds under alternative scenarios.
  • High risk: Baseline indicates a protracted breach, but no current payment difficulties.
  • In debt distress: Current indicators are in significant or sustained breach of thresholds.
• Judgment is required in some cases to avoid an overly mechanistic interpretation, especially in the presence of temporary breaches or unmeasured repayment capacity.

DSA Design and Operational Implications

A. Macroeconomic Scenario Design

• DSAs must be based on realistic macroeconomic scenarios.
• Reality checks are used to compare baseline projections with historical trends.
• Precautionary features are included to prevent excessive borrowing and debt distress.
• In scaling-up scenarios, the impact of increased public investment on GDP, exports, and public revenues must be projected.
• High growth dividends from large upfront borrowing (≥5% of GDP in PV terms) require an alternative "high-investment, low-growth" scenario and explicit justification of the growth assumptions.

B. Treatment of Domestic Debt

• All LIC DSAs must include a public DSA, as domestic debt can increase the risk of external debt distress.
• Domestic debt is defined on a residency basis and may include foreign currency obligations.
• The public sector includes central government, local governments, government-owned enterprises, and the central bank.
• Contingent liabilities, such as those from public-private partnerships, should be considered if data is available.
• Staff should assess domestic debt risks (especially when above 15-20% of GDP), primary fiscal balance, and medium-term fiscal implications.

C. Treatment of Debt Held by Private External Creditors

• Increased private external capital flows can provide resources but also introduce new vulnerabilities.
• Risks include sudden capital outflows, non-standard financing terms, and secondary balance sheet effects on the domestic financial system.
• Additional analysis is needed for countries with significant private external debt to assess sovereign liquidity, rollover risks, and reserve adequacy.

Modalities for Preparing DSAs

• DSAs should be published as supplements to Fund staff reports and be self-contained.
• A preliminary DSA should be included in IMF briefing papers, and Bank-Fund collaboration should occur before preparing DSA briefs.
• Review processes are in place to ensure quality and consistency.
• Dispute resolution mechanisms are outlined for addressing inconsistencies between Fund and Bank assessments.

Arrangements for HIPCs

• HIPCs are subject to specific arrangements under the DSF to ensure debt sustainability and policy coherence.
• These arrangements include timelines, responsibilities, and coordinating mechanisms with creditors and borrowers.

Communications Strategy

• DSAs should be communicated regularly with authorities, MDBs, and donors.
• Staff should encourage publication of DSAs and ownership by the authorities.
• Public engagement is emphasized to enhance transparency and effectiveness.

Key Tables and Boxes

• Table 1: Lists PRGF-eligible countries based on IDA status.
• Table 2: Shows debt burden thresholds under the DSF.
• Table 3: Suggests indicators for vulnerability analysis.
• Box 1: Highlights main changes to the DSF.
• Box 2: Provides indicators for analyzing the link between debt-financed investment and growth.
• Box 3: Discusses DSA process and collaboration.

Conclusion

The DSF is a comprehensive and collaborative framework designed to support debt sustainability in low-income countries. It emphasizes realistic scenario design, country-specific policy assessments, and transparent communication with stakeholders. The framework aims to prevent future debt problems, support development goals, and enhance coordination among creditors and borrowers.