2014年-世界发展银行全球_Taking_Stock_July_2014___An_Update_on_Vietnams_Recent_Economic_Developments_62页_3mb

Summary of Vietnam's Recent Economic Developments

Core Content

This report provides an overview of Vietnam's recent economic developments and a special focus on inequality issues as of July 2014. It highlights the macroeconomic stability, structural reforms, and challenges in the economy, as well as the social and economic implications of inequality.

Main Points

Global and Regional Economic Outlook

• Global Growth: Projected to rise to 3.4% in 2015 and 3.5% in 2016, driven by high-income economies. In 2014, global growth was revised down to 2.8% due to external shocks such as poor weather in the U.S., financial market turbulence, and the Ukraine conflict.
• Regional Growth: Expected to slow to 7.0% by 2016, about 2 percentage points slower than the pre-crisis boom years. Regional risks include global financing volatility, China's restructuring challenges, and weaker net export contributions.
• Vietnam's Growth: Estimated at 5.4% in 2014, with projections of not exceeding 5.5% before 2016. Growth remains below potential, constrained by weak domestic demand and structural issues in SOEs and the banking sector.

Macroeconomic Stability

• Inflation: Headline inflation dropped from 23% in 2011 to around 5% in 2014, and core inflation from 14% to 5.4%, due to stable supply-side pressures and weak domestic demand.
• Foreign Exchange Reserves: Increased to an import cover of about 3 months in 2014, up from 2.4 months in 2013. Recent tensions with China caused short-term market volatility, but conditions have since eased.
• Exchange Rate: The State Bank of Vietnam devalued the dong by 1% in June 2014, marking the first adjustment in 12 months. Sovereign risk spreads on CDS remained low.

Fiscal and Structural Challenges

• Fiscal Deficit: The 2013 deficit was 0.5 percentage points above the target of 4.8% of GDP, and similar overshooting is expected in 2014, mainly due to declining tax revenues.
• Tax Reforms: The government is strengthening tax administration and broadening the tax base, including requiring SOEs to pay dividends to the State Budget.
• Banking Sector: Banks remain cautious in lending despite deposit growth. Efforts to address non-performing loans (NPLs) have been slow, with Circular 02 on loan classification delayed until 2015. VAMC has taken over VND45.3 trillion in bad debts but lacks a clear resolution strategy.
• SOE Reforms: The pace of reforms has increased, with Resolution 15 outlining a comprehensive plan for SOE divestment. Two related laws are expected to be approved by end-2014. SOEs have been equitized, but most assets remain with state shareholders.

Private Sector and Employment

• Private Sector: Still struggling, with weak domestic demand and policy distortions hindering investment.
• Unemployment: Remains low at around 2%, but skilled workers face higher unemployment, reflecting a significant skills gap.
• Informality: In 2013, 63% of workers were in the informal sector, with a majority being women.

Special Focus on Inequality in Vietnam

Public Concern About Inequality

• Inequality has become a major public concern in Vietnam, with many citizens perceiving it as rising.
• A common sentiment is that the rich have more opportunities to invest in education and healthcare, while the poor are left behind.

Income Inequality

• The Gini coefficient for Vietnam was 39.4 in 2012, placing it in the middle of the global distribution.
• The bottom 40% experienced strong income growth at 9% annually over two decades, indicating shared prosperity.
• The top 20% saw the largest absolute increase in income, but this is not exceptional for Vietnam's income level.

Inequality of Opportunity

• Poor children are less likely to access education and healthcare and are more likely to be malnourished.
• Educational investment remains unequal, especially at lower- and upper-secondary levels.
• Gender inequality has declined significantly, with women catching up to men in education and labor participation, except in certain ethnic minority groups.

High End Inequality

• Little is known about inequality at the top end of the income distribution due to limited data on the super-rich.
• Vietnam had 110 super-rich individuals in 2013, with assets of US$30 million or more (excluding a principal residence), up from 34 in 2003.
• The number and growth rate of the super-rich are not extraordinary compared to other countries at similar income levels.

Perceptions of Inequality

• A majority of respondents express concern about inequality, with urban residents showing the strongest concerns.
• Perceptions are influenced by factors such as family background, connections, and illegitimate practices.
• There is strong public support for redistributive policies to reduce inequality, with over 80% of respondents agreeing that the government should transfer income from the wealthiest to the poorest.

Key Information

Main Economic Indicators

• GDP Growth: 5.4% in 2014, projected to not exceed 5.5% before 2016.
• Inflation: 5% in 2014 (headline) and 5.4% (core).
• Foreign Exchange Reserves: 3 months of import cover in 2014.
• FDI: Committed FDI increased in 2014, with a significant share coming from Asian sources.
• Tax Collection: Continued decline in tax revenues, with a focus on improving tax administration.

Structural Reforms

• Banking Sector: Needs more urgent reform, particularly in addressing NPLs and improving governance.
• SOE Reforms: Accelerated with Resolution 15 and new laws, but progress is uneven, with most reforms targeting small SOEs.
• State Budget Law: Proposed revisions aim to improve fiscal management and transparency.

Social and Economic Implications

• Inequality is a growing concern, especially among urban populations and ethnic minorities.
• Addressing inequality of opportunity is crucial for long-term growth and social cohesion.
• Redistributive policies are increasingly supported by the public, reflecting a demand for more inclusive growth.

Conclusion

Vietnam has made progress in macroeconomic stabilization and structural reforms, but challenges remain in achieving more inclusive and sustainable growth. Inequality, both in outcomes and opportunities, is a significant issue that requires continued attention and policy action.