2021-12-09-牛津经济研究院-Eurozone_Another_difficult_winter_ahead_amid_Omicron_threat_4页_261kb

Eurozone growth forecast revised down due to Omicron threat, expected quarterly average growth of 0.4% in Q4 2021 and Q1 2022, down from 0.7%. Winter restrictions may cause spending shift from services to goods, but Omicron's economic impact is expected to be milder than last winter and compensated by Q2 2022 growth. Countries with high vaccination rates (Southern Europe, Nordics) face less severe economic impact, while Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) economies continue to suffer due to low vaccination rates. Booster shots are increasingly important due to waning immunity. While supply shortages may support inflationary pressures, consumption cuts in services are expected to offset some gains in goods demand, leading to an overall small net impact on inflation.