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Rocky Harbors: Assessing the Islamic State Threat in 2015

Core Content

This document, Rocky Harbors: Taking Stock of the Middle East in 2015, provides a comprehensive analysis of the threat posed by the Islamic State Group (ISG) to Western interests in 2015. It is authored by Stephen D. Biddle and includes contributions from various experts. The report outlines the challenges and policy dilemmas the ISG presents, focusing on three key areas: homeland security, humanitarian concerns, and economic risks.

Main Western Interests at Risk

1. Homeland Security

• The ISG is a significant threat due to its presence of foreign fighters, including some with Western passports.
• However, the threat to Western nations' way of life is limited, and the ISG has not demonstrated the capability to conduct large-scale attacks on Western soil.
• The U.S. intelligence community assesses that the ISG does not pose an imminent threat of attacks on U.S. soil.
• The real challenge is managing the fear the ISG incites without overreacting, which could lead to counterproductive policies.

2. Humanitarian Concerns

• The civil wars in Syria and Iraq have caused massive civilian casualties and displacement.
• The potential for these conflicts to spread and trigger regional instability is high, especially due to the Sunni-Shi'ite divide and ongoing proxy wars.
• A region-wide war could result in catastrophic humanitarian outcomes, potentially surpassing the scale of the Rwandan genocide.
• Western powers have historically been reluctant to intervene on purely humanitarian grounds, but the scale of suffering is unprecedented and growing.

3. Economic Risk

• The ISG's activities could impact global oil supply and prices, with significant economic consequences for the West and its allies.
• A localized war in Iraq and Syria could reduce oil production by 1–2 million barrels per day, leading to an 8–10% increase in oil prices.
• A broader regional conflict could cut production by 50%, removing 13 million barrels per day from the global market, potentially doubling oil prices and causing severe economic damage.
• A regional war could lead to a loss of $450–750 billion in U.S. economic output annually, with potential for recession and broader global economic repercussions.

Policy Dilemmas

• The ISG threat is real but limited, making it difficult to determine the appropriate level of Western involvement.
• Western policymakers face a policy dilemma: the threat is significant enough to warrant action, but not severe enough to justify total commitment.
• The U.S. strategy has been to engage in limited airstrikes, aid, and diplomatic isolation, which may not be sufficient to address the underlying issues.
• Regional actors have complex and often conflicting interests, making it challenging to form a unified coalition.
• Examples of these conflicting interests include:
  • Turkey opposing both Assad and the ISG.
  • Saudi Arabia opposing the ISG but also Assad.
  • Iran opposing the ISG but supporting Assad.
• The risk of regional contagion is real, but not inevitable. If the war remains localized, the economic impact may be manageable.
• The worst-case scenario of a region-wide Sunni-Shi'ite war is a major economic setback, but not a new Great Depression.

Conclusion

The ISG presents a serious but non-existential threat to Western interests. While it is a dangerous actor, its impact on the West is limited compared to the stakes for the Middle East itself. The challenge lies in balancing security, humanitarian, and economic concerns with the need to avoid overreaction and unnecessary escalation. The report emphasizes the importance of diplomatic engagement and careful policy formulation to manage this complex and evolving threat.

Key Contributors

• Jon B. Alterman: Senior vice president at CSIS, Zbigniew Brzezinski Chair, and director of the Middle East Program.
• Carolyn Barnett: Research fellow at CSIS, with expertise in Middle Eastern politics, economics, and society.
• Stephen D. Biddle: Professor at George Washington University and adjunct senior fellow at CFR, specializing in national security and military strategy.
• Farideh Farhi: Affiliate faculty at the University of Hawaii, with a focus on revolutions and Iranian politics.
• Haim Malka: Senior fellow at CSIS, specializing in Middle Eastern security and politics.
• John McLaughlin: Former CIA deputy director, now a distinguished practitioner-in-residence at SAIS.
• Ghaith al-Omari: Senior fellow at The Washington Institute, with experience in Palestinian politics.
• Roger Owen: Emeritus professor at Harvard, specializing in Middle East history and economics.
• Paul Salem: Vice president for policy and research at MEI, with a focus on political change and conflict in the Levant and Egypt.