联合国贸易发展委员会-2025年世界投资报告_数字经济中的国际投资（英）-2025_274页_9mb

2025 World Investment Report Summary

Core Content

The World Investment Report 2025 focuses on the role of international investment in the digital economy in fostering inclusive and sustainable development. It highlights the challenges and opportunities in the global investment landscape, particularly in light of the ongoing retreat from globalization and the significant decline in foreign direct investment (FDI) flows.

Main Viewpoints

• Global FDI Decline: In 2024, global FDI fell by 11%, reaching $1.5 trillion, driven by volatile financial flows through conduit economies. This marks the second consecutive year of decline, with the outlook for 2025 being negative due to high investor uncertainty.

• FDI Concentration in Developing Countries: FDI in developing countries remains highly concentrated, with ten recipients accounting for three quarters of inflows. This trend underscores the uneven distribution of investment, leaving many structurally weak and vulnerable economies marginalized.

• Digital Economy as a Growth Engine: The digital economy is the only growth sector in 2024, expanding at an annual rate of 10–12%, outpacing global GDP growth. However, investment in the digital economy is highly uneven, with concentrated flows into a few countries.

• Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) Investment Crisis: Investment in SDG-related sectors such as infrastructure, renewable energy, water and sanitation, and agrifood systems dropped by 25–33% in 2024. The health sector was the only one to see positive growth, though from a small base.

• International Project Finance (IPF) Slump: IPF, crucial for large-scale infrastructure and development, fell by 26% in 2024, continuing a long-term decline. This has serious implications for financing for development, especially for Least Developed Countries (LDCs), which rely heavily on international finance.

• Geopolitical and Policy Challenges: Rising trade tensions, policy uncertainty, and geopolitical divisions are hurting the investment environment. These challenges have reduced the attractiveness of global investment and shifted focus toward domestic and nearshore strategies.

• Digital Transformation and Inequality: The digital transformation is seen as a choice, not an inevitability. The report stresses the need to ensure it is inclusive and sustainable, avoiding the digitization of inequality.

• Policy Recommendations: The report outlines a roadmap to leverage international investment in the digital economy, emphasizing the role of development finance institutions, multilateral banks, and blended finance mechanisms. It also proposes a Policy Toolkit for the Digital Economy to guide governments and investors.

Key Information

• FDI Trends:

  • Global FDI fell by 11% in 2024, reaching $1.5 trillion.
  • Developed countries saw a 22% contraction, while developing economies had stable flows.
  • Europe experienced a 58% drop in FDI inflows.
  • China and South America also saw significant declines, 29% and 18%, respectively.
  • North America saw a 23% increase, driven by M&A activity and investment in high-tech and clean energy.

• Digital Economy:

  • Digital sectors saw a doubling of project values.
  • Technology firms now account for over 20% of the top 100 MNEs' revenues.
  • Despite $500 billion in greenfield investment over the past five years, the distribution is uneven.

• SDG Investment:

  • Investment in SDG sectors declined by 25–33%, with health being the only positive sector.
  • The report calls for more public and private capital and better alignment with long-term sustainability goals.

• International Project Finance (IPF):

  • IPF fell by 26% in 2024, with a 40% drop between 2021 and 2024.
  • IPF is critical for infrastructure projects and SDG-related investments, but its decline is hurting development efforts.

• Policy and Institutional Support:

  • The Fourth Financing for Development Conference (FfD4) is a key focus, with calls to triple multilateral lending capacity and de-risk private investment.
  • Development finance institutions, multilateral banks, and sovereign wealth funds are highlighted as key actors in scaling up digital investment.
  • Blended finance mechanisms are proposed to bridge the investment gap.

• Investor Behavior:

  • Cross-border M&A increased by 14%, but remains below long-term averages.
  • Domestic and nearshore investments are becoming more common due to geopolitical risks and regulatory scrutiny.

• Digital Infrastructure and Skills:

  • Digital connectivity is a powerful driver of progress, but many economies lack adequate digital infrastructure and skills.
  • Policy and regulatory uncertainty continues to hinder progress.

Structure and Organization

• The report is divided into four main chapters:

  • Chapter I: International Investment Trends
  • Chapter II: Investment Policy Trends
  • Chapter III: Sustainable Finance Trends
  • Chapter IV: International Investment in the Digital Economy

• Key sections:

  • Chapter I provides an overview of FDI trends, including regional and sectoral breakdowns.
  • Chapter II examines national and international investment policies.
  • Chapter III discusses sustainable finance products and institutional investor actions.
  • Chapter IV offers policy recommendations and a roadmap for leveraging digital investment.

Conclusion

The World Investment Report 2025 emphasizes the need for international cooperation to promote a more resilient and sustainable global investment environment. It calls for inclusive and sustainable growth in the digital economy, stressing the importance of policy alignment, investment facilitation, and enhanced international collaboration. The report serves as a guiding document for governments, investors, and development partners to navigate the evolving investment landscape.