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Sino-Russian Cooperation Summary

Core Content

Sino-Russian cooperation has become a significant aspect of international relations, particularly in the context of growing U.S. tensions with both nations. While the partnership is driven by mutual interests and a shared opposition to U.S. dominance, it is not a full alliance and remains constrained by underlying mistrust and asymmetries.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Cooperation

• Historical Growth: Bilateral trade between China and Russia increased dramatically from $4.4 billion in 1992 to $89 billion in 2013, with China becoming Russia's largest trade partner in 2010.
• Major Deals: In 2014, a $400 billion gas deal was signed to supply 38 bcm of gas annually from Siberia to China via the Power of Siberia pipeline. A follow-up framework agreement aimed to increase this to 48 bcm through the Altai pipeline.
• Currency and Payment Mechanisms: Both nations sought to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar by agreeing to trade in their own currencies. In response to U.S. sanctions, they explored alternative payment systems.
• Challenges: Despite ambitious goals, trade has not met expectations. In 2015, bilateral trade is expected to decline by nearly a third, and investment dropped by 20% in the first seven months. Currency volatility, especially the ruble's instability, has also hindered progress.

Political and Security Cooperation

• Shared Worldview: Both countries emphasize absolute state sovereignty and oppose U.S. military and political interventions aimed at regime change.
• Mutual Support: They support each other in suppressing media and civil society, and oppose U.S. efforts to destabilize repressive governments, such as in Syria.
• Military Collaboration: Russia provides China with advanced military technology, including cruise missiles and radars, to support its anti-access/area denial strategy in the Western Pacific.
• Multilateral Forums: China and Russia have promoted the creation of new international institutions, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the BRICS New Development Bank, to challenge U.S. influence.
• Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO): This forum, led by Russia and China, facilitates bilateral deals and information sharing on dissidents, as well as joint military exercises.

Regional Dynamics

• Central Asia: Historically a competition zone, Sino-Russian cooperation in Central Asia has been more pronounced in recent years. However, China's Silk Road Economic Belt (SREB) and Russia's Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) have conflicting goals.
• Rail Corridors: China and Russia have agreed to combine their initiatives, with China building an additional rail corridor through Russia. However, the EEU is seen by Central Asian states as a neo-imperial project, and they seek a balance between Russian and Chinese influence.
• Strategic Divergences: Russia's arms sales to India and Vietnam conflict with China's regional ambitions. Moscow also seeks to improve relations with Japan, which China views as a potential threat.

U.S. Policy and Future Outlook

• U.S. Concerns: The U.S. is wary of Sino-Russian cooperation, particularly due to their shared opposition to U.S. containment and democracy promotion.
• Strategic Importance: The U.S. cannot isolate either Russia or China due to their global influence. Therefore, a balanced approach of containment and engagement is necessary.
• Partnership Nature: The Sino-Russian partnership is more than a convenience but not a full alliance. Both countries prioritize self-interest, and their cooperation is driven by a common discomfort with the current global order.

Conclusion

While Sino-Russian cooperation has deepened in response to U.S. pressure, it remains limited by mutual distrust and differing strategic priorities. The relationship is economically significant but politically and militarily more complex. The U.S. must navigate this evolving dynamic carefully to prevent further entrenchment of the Sino-Russian partnership.