战略与国际研究中心-Afghanistan--A-War-in-Crisis_290页_10mb

Summary of "Afghanistan: A War in Crisis!" by Anthony H. Cordesman

Core Content

The document "Afghanistan: A War in Crisis!" by Anthony H. Cordesman provides a comprehensive and critical analysis of the ongoing U.S. military involvement in Afghanistan and the challenges facing the Afghan government and its security forces. It outlines the current state of the conflict, the lack of a clear U.S. strategy, and the deep-rooted problems in Afghan governance, economy, and military capabilities.

Main Points

1. Uncertain Peace Prospects

• The U.S. peace effort is seen as a high-risk, uncertain option.
• There is no clear end to the war, and no stable Afghan state has emerged.
• The Taliban has not shown willingness to accept a lasting peace on any terms other than its own.
• Peace negotiations may be exploited by the Taliban to gain leverage and control over Afghanistan.

2. U.S. Strategy and Uncertainty

• The U.S. strategy remains unclear, with no official description of peace terms.
• The U.S. is considering a 50% reduction in military personnel by mid-2020, regardless of peace progress.
• Congress has mixed views on continued U.S. support, with some members pushing for major force cuts or withdrawal.
• The U.S. is using peace negotiations as a potential first step for withdrawal, without clear intentions or strategy.

3. Afghan Government's Weakness

• The Afghan government is corrupt, ineffective, and deeply divided.
• It has not been able to create a stable or legitimate government, even after 18 years of conflict.
• The Presidential election in September 2019 is expected to be highly divisive.
• Governance at all levels is weak, with the legal system under local Taliban control and widespread corruption.

4. Military Situation and Afghan Forces

• The Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) remain highly dependent on U.S. support.
• The ANSF cannot stand on their own without outside funding, training, and air support.
• U.S. military aid provides 70% of ANSF funding, and their combat effectiveness is heavily reliant on U.S. air and ground support.
• Afghan military casualties are high, and the ANP and ALP face serious challenges in terms of corruption, governance, and effectiveness.

5. Cost of War and Funding Issues

• The total cost of the war and reconstruction through FY2019 is estimated at $876.4 billion.
• The annual cost has dropped significantly, from $111 billion in FY2012 to $19 billion in FY2019.
• U.S. spending on the war has been erratic, with no consistent strategy or cost planning.
• Civil aid has failed to reduce poverty, create jobs, or develop a licit economy.
• Corruption and mismanagement have plagued both the Afghan government and donor efforts.

6. U.S. and NATO Military Role

• U.S. military involvement has shifted from a large presence to a smaller, more efficient footprint.
• The Resolute Support (RS) mission includes 17,148 personnel, with the U.S. providing the largest contribution.
• The U.S. has moved from a train and assist role to a more forward-deployed and combat-support role.
• SIGAR reports indicate that the U.S. has improved the effectiveness of its support, with lower casualties and more targeted operations.

7. Challenges in Afghan Force Development

• The Afghan Army and Police are still inadequately trained and equipped.
• Elite units are the only ones with some combat effectiveness.
• The Afghan Air Force lacks the capabilities of U.S. air support, including precision strikes and surveillance.
• Training shortfalls persist, particularly in coordinating air support and managing combat operations.
• Corruption and poor governance continue to undermine the effectiveness and legitimacy of Afghan forces.

8. Allied Contributions and U.S. Reliance

• Allies, particularly NATO and non-NATO partners, have played a critical role in supporting the U.S. and Afghan forces.
• The U.S. has not adequately acknowledged or included allies in its strategic decisions.
• This lack of coordination could hinder future peace efforts and international support.

9. Civil and Security Sector Weakness

• Afghanistan is described as a "failed state" at both the civil and security levels.
• The civil sector is even weaker than the security sector, with poverty, corruption, and economic stagnation.
• The narco-economy continues to be a major source of funding and influence.
• The population is deeply divided, and the country faces challenges in employing its youth and achieving unity.

Key Issues

• Lack of transparency in U.S. strategy and peace plans.
• Inconsistent and erratic funding and military support.
• Weak and corrupt governance and civil institutions.
• Dependence of Afghan forces on U.S. support.
• Failure of international aid coordination.
• Uncertainty about the future of the U.S. military presence.

Conclusion

The document emphasizes that Afghanistan remains in a critical and unstable state, with no clear path to peace or stability. The U.S. and its allies have played a vital role, but their efforts have been inconsistent and poorly managed. The Afghan government and security forces are too weak and corrupt to succeed independently, and the civil and economic sectors are in dire need of reform. The war is not over, and the U.S. must decide whether to stay, seek peace, or withdraw without a clear plan. The lack of a coherent strategy and transparency is a major obstacle to achieving a lasting solution.