2007年-世界发展银行全球_East_Asian_FTAs_in_Services_234页_3mb

Summary of "TRADE ISSUES IN EAST ASIA" (June 2007)

Core Content

This paper examines the evolution and implications of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) in the services sector in East Asia, focusing on their architecture, liberalization outcomes, and compatibility with World Trade Organization (WTO) rules. It analyzes twenty-five FTAs and their potential to contribute to regional economic integration, while also highlighting the challenges and trade-offs associated with preferential liberalization versus multilateral approaches.

Main Viewpoints

1. FTAs in Services: A Growing Trend

• The number of FTAs in East Asia has increased significantly since the year 2000.
• As of 2007, 24 agreements have been signed, with around 40 in negotiation.
• These agreements aim to liberalize trade in services alongside goods, marking a shift from earlier reluctance to engage in such arrangements.

2. Economic and Bargaining Considerations

• Economic Benefits: Preferential liberalization in services can bring static welfare gains, but MFN liberalization is generally more beneficial due to non-discrimination and increased competition.
• Bargaining Power: FTAs allow for more focused and effective bargaining compared to multilateral negotiations, which are complex and slow.
• Rule of Origin: These rules determine the extent of trade diversion and influence the economic outcomes of FTAs. Liberal rules reduce discrimination but still fall short of MFN due to the requirement for some presence in FTA member states.

3. Architectural Differences in FTAs

• Scheduling Approaches: Two main types of scheduling exist—positive list (sectors explicitly listed) and negative list (all sectors open except those specified).
• Key Disciplines: These include national treatment, market access, most-favored-nation (MFN) treatment, and investment rules.
• Investment in Services: Some FTAs include dual coverage of investment and services, which can streamline disciplines but may also reduce transparency and credibility.
• Movement of Natural Persons: FTAs have made progress in this area, but the added value compared to multilateral commitments is minimal.
• Rules of Origin: Most FTAs adopt liberal rules, but some have restrictions that limit benefits to domestic suppliers.
• Dispute Settlement: While most FTAs follow WTO-style mechanisms, some lack the robustness of the WTO system, particularly in allowing single-party blocking of arbitration panels.

4. Liberalization Outcomes

• The liberalization content of East Asian FTAs varies, with some offering substantial value added over WTO commitments and others only modest improvements.
• Sectoral Focus: Distribution and tourism services have seen more liberalization, while sensitive sectors like health, transport, and financial services remain underdeveloped.
• Modes of Supply: Liberalization is more extensive in cross-border supply and consumption abroad, but less so in commercial presence (mode 3).
• Economic Development: There is a positive correlation between the ambition of FTA liberalization and a country's level of economic development.

5. Compatibility with WTO Rules

• FTAs may be considered lawful exemptions under WTO rules if they meet certain conditions, such as substantial sectoral coverage, elimination of trade barriers, and liberal rules of origin.
• However, many East Asian FTAs do not fully meet these criteria, raising concerns about their compliance with WTO obligations.
• The paper also notes that the proliferation of FTAs could either support or hinder multilateral integration, depending on their design and implementation.

6. Building Blocks or Stumbling Stones?

• The paper suggests that FTAs can serve as building blocks for multilateral liberalization by reducing discrimination and promoting regulatory cooperation.
• However, they may also undermine multilateral efforts if they create a "regional preference" system that weakens the WTO's multilateral framework.

Key Information

• Positive vs. Negative Lists:

  • 15 agreements use positive lists (explicitly listing sectors).
  • 10 agreements use negative lists (open to all sectors except those specified).
  • Neither approach inherently offers greater transparency or credibility, but the content of commitments matters more.

• Sectoral Coverage:

  • Some sectors (distribution, tourism, construction, business services, communications) are more liberalized.
  • Sensitive sectors (health, transport, financial services) have fewer commitments.

• Rules of Origin:

  • Most FTAs adopt liberal rules, allowing third-party service suppliers to benefit if established in an FTA member.
  • Some agreements restrict benefits to domestic suppliers, limiting the scope of liberalization.

• Dispute Settlement:

  • Most FTAs include state-to-state mechanisms similar to the WTO.
  • Some agreements also include investor-to-state dispute settlement, providing additional protections for foreign investors.

• Economic Development and Liberalization:

  • There is a positive relationship between a country's economic development and the ambition of its FTA liberalization commitments.
  • Learning-by-doing effects may benefit developing countries by preparing domestic suppliers for global competition.

• Future Implications:

  • The paper raises questions about the long-term impact of FTAs on multilateral integration.
  • It concludes that East Asian FTAs present a mixed liberalization outcome and require careful assessment for their effectiveness and compliance with WTO rules.

Conclusion

East Asian FTAs in services have made progress in liberalizing trade, but their impact varies widely. While they offer opportunities for deeper regulatory cooperation and market access, they also raise concerns about transparency, credibility, and compatibility with WTO rules. The paper underscores the importance of evaluating the content and structure of these agreements to understand their role in shaping the future of regional and multilateral trade policy.