20220415-招银国际-卓胜微-300782.SZ-1Q22_preliminary_results_top-line_better_thanfeared_bottom-line_miss；Maintain_BUY_4页_906kb
报告摘要
Maxscend (300782 CH) 1Q22 Preliminary Results Summary
Core Content Overview
Maxscend reported its 1Q22 preliminary results, highlighting a double-digit revenue growth despite a challenging macroeconomic environment. While revenue exceeded expectations, the net profit (NP) missed due to margin compression and supply chain issues. The company maintained its BUY rating with a revised target price (TP) of RMB278, down from the previous RMB450.
Key Financial Highlights
Revenue
- 1Q22 Revenue: Estimated to grow 12.4% YoY to RMB1,330mn.
- YoY Growth (FY21E to FY22E): 35.9% (RMB6,299mn).
- 12-month forward P/E: 24.3x (FY22E), 18.5x (FY23E).
Net Profit
- 1Q22 NP: Expected to decline 7.9% YoY to RMB454mn.
- FY22E NP: Revised -9% from prior estimate to RMB2,467mn.
- Net Profit Margin (FY22E): 34.1%, down 19 ppt from 53.1% in 1Q21.
Profitability Ratios
- Gross Margin (FY22E): 54.6%, down 0.9 ppt from 55.5% (FY21E).
- Operating Margin (FY22E): 42.3%, down 4.6 ppt from 46.9% (FY21E).
- ROE (FY22E): 37.1%, down from 46.5% (FY21E).
Product Portfolio and Market Conditions
- RF Module (L-PAMiF): Mass production contributed to revenue growth.
- Smartphone Market Weakness: Continued weak demand in the smartphone sector affected profitability.
- Product Mix: Expansion into matured categories like sub-3GHz receiver modules led to margin pressure.
- Supply Chain Uncertainties: Contributed to lower margins and higher inventory levels.
Analyst Recommendations and Risks
- Maintain BUY: With a new TP of RMB278.
- Target P/E Multiple (FY22E): Adjusted to 37x, 1-SD below historical 2-year average.
- Potential Upside: Includes M&A opportunities.
- Potential Risks:
- Weakened consumer demand
- Intensified competition
- Slower-than-expected R&D progress
- Further deterioration in macroeconomic conditions
Shareholding and Market Performance
- Shareholding Structure:
- WX HUIZHI UNITED INV ENT: 12.79%
- Feng Chenhui: 7.87%
- Tang Zhuang: 7.67%
- Stock Performance (12 months):
- Absolute Return: -41.1%
- Relative Return: -29.9%
Financial Summary (FY21E)
| Item | FY19A | FY20A | FY21E | FY22E | FY23E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 1,512 | 2,792 | 4,636 | 6,299 | 8,265 |
| YoY Growth (%) | 170.0% | 84.6% | 66.1% | 35.9% | 31.2% |
| Net Profit (RMB mn) | 497 | 1,073 | 2,139 | 2,467 | 3,236 |
| YoY Growth (%) | 206.3% | 115.8% | 99.4% | 15.3% | 31.2% |
| EPS (RMB) | 3.16 | 3.31 | 6.52 | 7.51 | 9.86 |
| Net Profit Margin (%) | 32.9% | 38.4% | 46.1% | 39.2% | 39.1% |
| Net Cash from Operating (RMB mn) | 56 | 1,005 | 867 | 2,661 | 2,116 |
| Net Cash from Investing (RMB mn) | -582 | 130 | -1,333 | -760 | -1,031 |
| Net Cash from Financing (RMB mn) | 730 | -101 | -186 | -406 | -460 |
| Net Change in Cash (RMB mn) | 204 | 1,035 | -652 | 1,495 | 625 |
Balance Sheet Summary (FY21E)
| Item | FY19A | FY20A | FY21E | FY22E | FY23E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Assets (RMB mn) | 1,923 | 3,090 | 5,004 | 7,456 | 10,312 |
| Total Liabilities (RMB mn) | 226 | 438 | 410 | 809 | 899 |
| Total Equity (RMB mn) | 1,698 | 2,652 | 4,594 | 6,647 | 9,412 |
| Current Ratio (x) | 8.5 | 6.6 | 9.5 | 7.3 | 8.6 |
| Inventory Turnover Days | 127 | 138 | 146 | 146 | 146 |
Key Ratios
| Ratio | FY19A | FY20A | FY21E | FY22E | FY23E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue Growth (%) | 170.0% | 84.6% | 66.1% | 35.9% | 31.2% |
| Gross Profit Growth (%) | 173.8% | 85.9% | 79.4% | 29.9% | 28.0% |
| Operating Profit Growth (%) | 219.3% | 116.5% | 82.6% | 19.7% | 27.8% |
| Net Profit Growth (%) | 206.3% | 115.8% | 99.4% | 15.3% | 31.2% |
| Gross Margin (%) | 52.5% | 52.8% | 57.1% | 54.6% | 53.3% |
| Operating Margin (%) | 37.2% | 43.6% | 48.0% | 42.3% | 41.2% |
| Net Profit Margin (%) | 32.9% | 38.4% | 46.1% | 39.2% | 39.1% |
| ROE (%) | 29.2% | 40.3% | 46.5% | 37.1% | 34.3% |
| ROA (%) | 25.9% | 34.7% | 42.7% | 33.1% | 31.4% |
Conclusion
Maxscend demonstrated resilience in a tough quarter with 12.4% YoY revenue growth, which is seen as a positive signal for its ability to expand its product portfolio. However, the NP decline of 7.9% YoY was driven by margin compression, unfavorable product mix, rising material prices, and supply chain uncertainties. The company's BUY rating remains intact, but with a revised TP of RMB278 and a lower target P/E multiple of 37x, reflecting the weaker smartphone market and increased margin pressure. Analysts remain optimistic about M&A opportunities and long-term growth, but caution is advised due to potential risks in the market environment.
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