战略与国际研究中心-Redefining-the-Conceptual-Boundaries-of-Homeland-Defense_37页_163kb

Summary of "DEFENDING AMERICA: REDEFINING THE CONCEPTUAL BORDERS OF HOMELAND DEFENSE"

Introduction

This report, authored by Anthony H. Cordesman, is a rough working draft of a broader CSIS Homeland Defense project. It highlights the growing complexity of homeland defense in the post-Cold War era, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive, integrated approach to address both domestic and international threats. The report warns against strategies that focus narrowly on specific threats, potentially leaving the US vulnerable to others.

Core Content

I. Emerging Threats to the US Homeland

• Diverse and Evolving Threats: Homeland defense must address a wide range of threats, including:

  • Direct military attacks using long-range delivery systems and weapons of mass destruction (WMDs)
  • Foreign and domestic terrorism using WMDs or conventional means
  • Information warfare by states, extremists, and criminals
  • Use of international crime and narcotics trafficking to attack the US

• Asymmetric Warfare: Threats are increasingly asymmetric, with attackers potentially shifting tactics based on US defensive improvements. For example:

  • Effective missile defenses may push adversaries toward covert or cruise missile attacks
  • Defenses against physical terrorism may lead to increased emphasis on information warfare

• Unpredictable Nature: The nature of threats is unpredictable and may evolve rapidly in response to US actions. This makes it difficult to prioritize and allocate resources effectively.

II. The Changing Post-War Threat Landscape

• Global Conflict Trends: Most conflicts and deaths occurred before the Cold War ended, with no significant decrease in the number or intensity of conflicts since 1990.
• US Involvement in Peacekeeping: The US has been heavily involved in peacekeeping missions, with 36 deployments since 1989 compared to 10 in the previous 40 years.
• Regional Threats: Nations like Iran, Iraq, North Korea, and China remain potential threats due to their WMD capabilities and missile development.
• Covert Warfare: Many nations have developed capabilities for covert operations, which pose a unique challenge to homeland defense.

III. Linkages Between Homeland and Foreign Defense

• Interconnected Defense Needs: Homeland defense is not isolated from foreign defense. The US must consider:
  • The impact of its defense strategies on alliances and foreign relations
  • The risk of provoking other nations to increase their offensive capabilities
  • The need for a balanced approach between direct homeland defense and overseas deterrence
• Strategic Implications: Improvements in homeland defense may affect the ABM Treaty, START II and III, and the nuclear programs of Russia and China.

IV. Domestic Threats

• Domestic Extremism and Terrorism: The Oklahoma City bombing exemplifies the threat posed by domestic extremists and terrorists.
• Potential for WMD Use: Domestic actors may use biological or chemical weapons, increasing the risk of catastrophic attacks.
• Targeting Critical Infrastructure: Attacks could target utilities, government offices, financial systems, and symbolic locations.

V. Uncertain Threats: Narcotics and Organized Crime

• New Forms of Threat: Technology has enabled new types of threats, including:
  • Information warfare, which can be used by states, criminals, and extremists
  • The use of narcotics and organized crime as tools of attack, including through proxies and mercenaries
• Blurred Lines: The distinction between crime and warfare is thin, and these threats may be exploited in ways that are hard to predict or prevent.

Main Points and Recommendations

• Integrated Approach Required: The US must adopt a comprehensive strategy that addresses all types of threats, not just one or two.
• Cost-Effectiveness and Flexibility: Homeland defense programs must be flexible and cost-effective, considering long-term research and development needs.
• Balanced Budget Priorities: Trade-offs between homeland defense and other defense and civil programs are inevitable and must be managed carefully.
• Deterrence and Preparedness: The US must balance deterrence with preparedness, recognizing that over-reaction or under-reaction can both be detrimental.
• Need for Coherent Strategy: A coherent strategy must be developed that includes research, deployment, and budgeting, while avoiding overly politicized or vague initiatives.

Conclusion

Homeland defense is an evolving and complex challenge. The US must avoid narrow strategies that ignore the interconnected nature of threats and the need for a balanced, cost-effective, and flexible approach. The report underscores the importance of integrating domestic and foreign defense efforts and making informed trade-offs in the face of uncertainty.