20251107-永安期货-沥青早报_2页_1mb

Yongan Futures Research Center
Date: November 7, 2025

Key Insights:

1. Basis Analysis by Region:

• Shandong (Hongrun): The basis widened by +80 (Reference: Hongrun). The market trajectory over recent days is listed as 172 → 6 → 17 → -16 → 11 → 27 → 5, generally fluctuating downward.
• East China (Zhenjiang Inventory): Basis increased from 72 to 106, then reached a high of 157 before dropping to 181 and stabilizing around 57–75.
• South China (Foshan Inventory): The basis peaked at 146 shortly before declining to 181 but eventually fell to 35.

2. Month-to-Month Changes:

• BU12-01 (Brent Crude oil linked): Recorded average price at 3328, with a total drop of 135 points.
• BU12-03: Close at -1 from the previous trading day, indicating downward trend in this series.

3. Profitability Trends:

• Asphalt/Refined Oil Profit: Initial profit of RM364 decreased to RM179, showing a slight stabilization but overall underperformance.
• Total Inventory Profit: It started at RM789 and increased marginally to RM729 despite fluctuations.

4. Market Activity:

• Trading volume for BU was high with 323,321 contracts initially, varying between 228,866 to 295,033.
• Managing inventory storage and unit counts down trends indicate market rationalization.

5. Energy Commodity Overview:

• Brent Crude: Average price fell from RM65.5 to RM63.5, a decline of 1.5%.
• Other Energy Products: Including JBO, Hongrun, Zhenjiang, etc., recorded decreasing prices ranging from RM3,540 to RM3,080 over the same period.

6. Risk Disclaimer:
All provided data is based on publicly available information, though the accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. Analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice. Clients are urged to make independent trading decisions and accept responsibility for outcomes. Unauthorized copying or reposting is prohibited.

Signals and recommendations are subject to change due to various market-related variables.