20171019-三星证券-Doosan_Bobcat__5页_369kb
报告摘要
Company Visit Note Summary: Doosan Bobcat (241560)
Core Information
- Analysts: Youngsoo Han and Richard Moon
- Contact:
- Date: 2017.10.19
- Target Price: KRW46,000
- Current Price: KRW37,300
- Market Cap: KRW3.7t/USD3.3b
- Shares (float): 100,249,166
- 52-week High/Low: KRW40,200/KRW33,400
- Avg Daily Trading Value (60-day): KRW6.9b/USD6.1m
Investment Recommendation
- Rating: BUY (★★★)
- Rationale:
- Doosan Bobcat (DBI) is considered still attractive despite overhang concerns.
- Sales are expected to grow strongly in 2H due to aggressive marketing in 3Q and increased demand from hurricane relief in 4Q.
- Marketing costs will burden operating profit in 3Q but are expected to fall in 4Q due to market growth and reduced competition.
- Shares are trading at a 19% discount to its rival, Kubota.
- Robust EPS growth and potential benefits from an income tax cut and shift toward US protectionism are positive factors.
- Dividend-related momentum is expected at year-end.
Key Financial Highlights
Summary Financial Data (2016–2019E)
| Metric |
2016 |
2017E |
2018E |
2019E |
| Revenue (KRWb) |
3,950 |
4,078 |
3,710 |
3,989 |
| Net Profit (adj) (KRWb) |
194 |
216 |
282 |
316 |
| EPS (adj) (KRW) |
1,932 |
2,157 |
2,814 |
3,153 |
| EPS Growth (% y-y) |
14.1 |
11.6 |
30.5 |
12.1 |
| EBITDA Margin (%) |
12.3 |
12.9 |
16.3 |
16.4 |
| ROE (%) |
5.6 |
6.3 |
7.9 |
8.3 |
| P/E (adj) (x) |
19.3 |
17.3 |
13.3 |
11.8 |
| P/B (x) |
1.1 |
1.1 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) |
10.3 |
8.9 |
7.1 |
6.0 |
| Dividend Yield (%) |
1.9 |
2.1 |
2.4 |
2.7 |
3Q17E Financial Preview
| Metric |
3Q17E |
2Q17 |
Chg (% q-q) |
3Q16 |
Chg (% y-y) |
Consensus |
Diff (%) |
| Sales |
1,024 |
1,075 |
-4.7 |
882 |
+16.2 |
1,012 |
+1.2 |
| Operating Profit |
97 |
136 |
-28.4 |
103 |
-5.6 |
116 |
-16.2 |
| Pre-tax Profit |
76 |
96 |
-21.5 |
83 |
-8.9 |
95 |
-20.4 |
| Net Profit* |
49 |
49 |
-0.0 |
48 |
+2.7 |
61 |
-19.6 |
| Operating Margin (%) |
9.5 |
12.6 |
|
11.7 |
|
11.5 |
|
| Pre-tax Margin (%) |
7.4 |
9.0 |
|
9.4 |
|
9.4 |
|
| Net Margin (%) |
4.8 |
4.6 |
|
5.4 |
|
6.0 |
|
Shareholder Structure
- Current Shareholders:
- Doosan Infracore: 59.3%
- Doosan Engine: 10.6%
- Lock-up Expiration: Nov 18
- Potential Share Unloading: Expected after lock-up expiration due to debt at group affiliates, but likely seen as positive by the market.
Peer Valuation Comparison
| Metric |
2017E |
2018E |
| P/E (x) |
17.3 |
13.3 |
| P/B (x) |
1.1 |
1.0 |
| EV/EBITDA (x) |
8.9 |
7.1 |
| EPS Growth (%) |
11.6 |
30.5 |
| Operating Margin (%) |
10.7 |
13.2 |
| ROE (%) |
6.3 |
7.9 |
Key Changes
| Metric |
New |
Old |
Diff (%) |
| Recommendation |
BUY |
BUY |
- |
| Target Price |
46,000 |
46,000 |
0.0% |
| 2017E EPS |
2,157 |
2,157 |
0.0% |
| 2018E EPS |
2,814 |
2,823 |
-0.3% |
Samsung vs The Street
| Metric |
No of Estimates |
Target Price (KRW) |
Recommendation |
| Samsung |
10 |
46,040 |
3.9 |
Investment Outlook
- DBI shares have underperformed overseas rivals, primarily due to overhang risk.
- The company is undervalued compared to peers, with a P/E of 13.3x for 2018E (19% discount to Kubota).
- Strong EPS growth is anticipated in 2018, with a 30.5% increase.
- Dividend yield is expected to rise to 2.7% by 2019.
- The potential unloading of shares by affiliates post-lock-up expiration is viewed as positive by the market.
Compliance & Disclaimer
- The analysts did not own any shares or convertible debt instruments as of Oct 18, 2017.
- Samsung Securities' holdings would not exceed 1% of any company's outstanding shares if converted.
- The report is not an offer to buy or sell securities.
- No guarantees of accuracy or completeness.
- Information is based on publicly available data and may not reflect affiliate management views.
- The report is for private circulation only in Korea and restricted to institutional investors in Singapore and the UK.
- Samsung Securities disclaims all liability for any losses or damages arising from the use of this report.
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