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CSIS Press Conference Call on G7 Summit Summary

Core Content

This press conference call, held on June 4, 2018, discussed the G7 Summit and the evolving dynamics among U.S. and its G7 allies, particularly in the context of trade tensions and broader multilateral issues. The event featured insights from three CSIS experts: Heather Conley, William Reinsch, and Stephanie Segal, moderated by H. Andrew Schwartz.

Main Themes and Key Points

1. Trade Tensions and Unilateral Actions

• Steel and Aluminum Tariffs: The U.S. has imposed tariffs on steel and aluminum, which have drawn criticism from other G7 members, including Canada and the European Union.
• National Security Rhetoric: The use of national security as a justification for these tariffs has been met with skepticism, especially from Canada and Europe, who view it as a pretext for protectionist policies.
• Potential Tariff Expansion: The U.S. may extend its trade actions to China and automobiles, further escalating tensions.
• Impact on the Rules-Based System: The U.S. has been criticized for undermining the global trading system, which it helped create and maintain over the past 70 years. Unilateral actions are seen as a threat to this system.

2. Multilateral Cooperation and G7 Dynamics

• G6 + 1 Narrative: The summit is expected to be marked by a "G6 + 1" dynamic, where the U.S. is seen as the outlier, and the other G7 members are likely to coordinate against it.
• Lack of Consensus: The G7 is unlikely to issue a unified communique due to the lack of agreement on key issues, particularly trade policy.
• Structural Concerns: The U.S. is seen as a disruptor of the international system, and the question of who will lead the rebuilding of this system remains unresolved.

3. Emerging Market Vulnerabilities

• Argentina: Faces a traditional balance of payments crisis and is in discussions with the IMF. It is also the G20 president, adding to the scrutiny.
• Turkey: Experiencing market pressure due to economic imbalances and political statements by President Erdoğan.
• Italy: A G7 member with a domestic political crisis that could have significant spillover effects, especially within the eurozone.

4. U.S.-European Relations

• Deterioration in Trust: European leaders, including Angela Merkel and Theresa May, are increasingly distancing themselves from the U.S. due to its trade policies and unilateral actions.
• Domestic Pressures: European leaders are under pressure to stand up to the U.S. president, especially as public opinion in the U.S. is negative towards Trump.
• Comparisons to Past Tensions: The current situation is viewed as more severe than previous disagreements, such as those over the Iraq War or the INF Treaty, because it challenges the fundamental underpinnings of the international order.

5. Leadership Dynamics at the Summit

• Chancellor Merkel: Has a long-standing role in the G7 and is dealing with the impact of the Italian elections.
• Prime Minister Trudeau: Faces domestic challenges and is under pressure to maintain a progressive agenda, which may clash with the more protectionist stance of the U.S.
• Prime Minister May: Is under significant pressure from both the EU and the U.S., especially regarding Brexit and future trade relations.
• President Macron: Has a strong relationship with Trump but is also dealing with domestic political challenges and the need to balance U.S. and European interests.
• European Commission President Juncker: This will be his last G7 summit, and the U.S. relationship is a key focus for him.

6. U.S. Domestic Politics and Multilateral Engagement

• Singapore Summit: The upcoming summit with North Korea is a high priority for the administration, but it may not help ease tensions at the G7.
• Allied Support: The U.S. may need allied support for any outcomes from the Singapore Summit, but the current G7 climate is not conducive to such cooperation.

Key Information

• The U.S. is seen as acting unilaterally, which is causing friction with its G7 allies.
• The G7 is likely to be a "G6 + 1" environment, with the U.S. being the target of collective criticism.
• Emerging market vulnerabilities are a concern for G7 finance ministers, with Argentina, Turkey, and Italy as key examples.
• The U.S. is not only criticized for its trade actions but also for its broader stance on international agreements like the JCPOA and the Paris Climate Agreement.
• The summit may result in a breakdown of communication, with the possibility of no unified communique.
• The U.S. is perceived as a threat to the post-WWII international order, and the question of who will replace it remains unanswered.