2023-03-08-莱坊-Ireland_Investment_Market_Overview_December_2022_5页_7mb

报告摘要

Ireland Investment Market Summary - December 2022

Core Content

The Ireland Investment Market report from December 2022 provides an overview of investment activity and economic conditions in the country. It highlights the resilience of the market despite global economic and geopolitical challenges, with a focus on real estate sectors and macroeconomic trends.

Main Points

Economic Overview

2022 Performance: Ireland's economy faced global challenges, including inflation and rising interest rates, which affected consumer behavior and investor decision-making.
Modified Domestic Demand: Grew by double digits in the first half of 2022 but slowed in Q3 due to consumer caution. Overall, it is expected to increase by over 5% for the year.
GDP Forecast: The European Commission predicted GDP growth of 7–8% for 2022, but a more modest 2% and 3.2% for 2023.
Challenges: Inflation and higher funding costs are significant challenges, affecting construction deadlines and investor choices.

Investment Activity

Q3 2022 Investment: €1.7 billion was invested in the Irish property market, bringing the total investment for 2022 to €4.8 billion.
Year-on-Year Growth: Investment activity in Q3 2022 was 36% higher than the same period in 2021.
Comparison to Average: The 2022 investment spend so far is significantly above the average of €2.5 billion for the same period in the last five years.

Key Investment Sectors

Private Rented Sector (PRS)

Contribution: Accounted for 36% of total investment spend in Q3, totaling €637.8 million.
Sub-sectors: Multifamily was the most dominant, making up 83% of residential investment spend.
Notable Deals: Greystar acquired 242 units at Brickfield Square for €123.5 million. New Beginnings invested in social housing (Project Ivy and Project Haven Purple) for €54.5 million and €12.0 million respectively. Harrison Street purchased 342 units at Melbourne Point for €40.0 million.
Trend: Investor interest is expanding to sub-sectors like student accommodation, which is seen as a defensive investment due to stable university enrollments.

Office

Contribution: 11% of total investment spend in Q3, totaling €185.1 million.
Notable Deals: Corum bought The Watermarque Building for €92.3 million. Patrizia acquired The Eight Building for €58.1 million. Blackstone's purchase of Spencer Place (€500.0 million) was a major mixed-use deal, with 31% of Q3 spend attributed to mixed-use assets.
Trend: Office demand in city centre locations is expected to rise as occupiers aim to meet ESG targets and create better workplace environments. Secondary office assets may see deeper price adjustments due to the need for capital expenditure.

Healthcare

Contribution: 10% of total investment spend in Q3, totaling €179.9 million.
Notable Deals: Aedifica acquired Project Sapphire (four nursing homes in Dublin) for €161.0 million and a nursing home in Sligo for €17.0 million.

Industrial, Hotels & Retail

Industrial: 5% of total investment spend, totaling €90.4 million. M7 Real Estate acquired Unit AO2 at The Hub Logistics Park for €24.0 million and Churchtown Business Park for €7.2 million.
Hotels: 5% of total investment spend, with Song Capital acquiring a 340-unit Staycity aparthotel for €80.0 million.
Retail: 2% of total investment spend, totaling €30.2 million. Notable transactions included the Gorey Shopping Centre by CLL Investments LLP for €9.4 million and the Bank of Ireland Branch Portfolio by Iroko Zen for €8.5 million.

Investment Sources

Overseas Purchasers: Accounted for 89% of investment spend in Q3, with European and US buyers each contributing 40%, and UK buyers at 9%.
Domestic Buyers: Made up the remaining 11% of investment activity.

Outlook for 2023

Debt Market Repricing: The ECB is expected to increase interest rates, leading to a continued rapid repricing of debt markets.
Prime Asset Yields: Prime yields may move out by up to 75 basis points from mid-2022 to Q1 2023, depending on the asset type.
Investor Behavior: Some investors have delayed plans, while others have reduced or renegotiated offers, but the strong performance in 2022 is expected to push total investment spend above €5.5 billion.
Market Drivers: Tight labor markets and population growth will support residential rental demand. E-commerce and supply chain changes will drive industrial and logistics demand.
Supply Constraints: Rising finance and construction costs are likely to limit the supply of prime assets in 2023.

Contact Information

Research Team

Joan Henry - Chief Economist & Head of Research
Email: Joan.Henry@ie.knightfrank.com
Robert O'Connor - Senior Research Analyst
Email: Robert.O'Connor@ie.knightfrank.com
Sean Cadogan - Research Analyst
Email: Sean.Cadogan@ie.knightfrank.com

Capital Markets Team

Adrian Trueick - Director
Email: Adrian.Trueick@ie.knightfrank.com
Peter Flanagan - Director
Email: Peter.Flanagan@ie.knightfrank.com
Ross Fogarty - Director
Email: Ross.Fogarty@ie.knightfrank.com

Disclaimer

This report is for general information only and should not be relied upon.
HT Meagher O'Reilly trading as Knight Frank cannot be held responsible for any loss or damage resulting from the use of this report.
Reproduction of this report is not allowed without prior written approval.