2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Determinants_of_Non_21页_663kb

Summary of "Determinants of Non-oil Growth in the CFA-Zone Oil Producing Countries: How do they Differ?"

Core Content

This working paper examines the determinants of non-oil growth in CFA-zone oil producing countries and explores how these countries differ from other low-income countries (LICs) that do not rely on nonrenewable resources. The study highlights the "resource curse" phenomenon, where resource-rich countries often experience lackluster economic growth despite their natural resource wealth. The paper develops a general equilibrium model to analyze the factors influencing non-oil growth and uses empirical data from a panel of 38 countries to test the model's predictions.

Main Points

1. Non-oil Growth in CFA Oil Exporters

• Non-oil growth in CFA oil producing countries has been relatively weak compared to other countries with similar levels of development.
• Despite oil wealth, these countries lag behind in social services and infrastructure development.
• Poverty and low social indicators persist, partly due to conflicts and institutional weaknesses.

2. Key Determinants of Growth

• Real exchange rate appreciation negatively affects growth in all countries, consistent with the Dutch disease theory.
• Public and private investment are not effective in spurring non-oil growth in CFA oil exporters.
• Institutional weaknesses and market inefficiencies significantly hinder growth.
• Public goods and services play a positive role in non-oil growth when efficiently used.

3. Model Overview

• A small open economy model is developed, incorporating:
  • An oil exporting sector
  • A tradable sector
  • A non-tradable sector
• The model includes:
  • Public goods as complements to private production
  • Effective tax rates on capital and firm profits to capture market imperfections
  • Constant returns to scale and Cobb-Douglas production function

4. Theoretical Predictions

• Public investment enhances non-oil growth by improving productivity and capital efficiency.
• Market imperfections reduce the marginal product of capital, thereby lowering growth.
• Real exchange rate indirectly affects growth by influencing capital allocation between sectors.

Key Findings from Empirical Analysis

1. Growth Equation

• A growth equation is estimated using a panel data approach with country and time fixed effects.
• The equation includes:
  • Real exchange rate (R)
  • Investment share (X)
  • Government consumption share (X)
  • A dummy variable for CFA oil exporters (D)

2. Exchange Rate Impact

• A 10% overvaluation of the real exchange rate is associated with a 0.25 percentage point decrease in non-oil growth.
• The real effective exchange rate (REER) is also used as a measure, and the results are robust across both measures.

3. Investment Impact

• Investment has a positive impact on growth in general, but not statistically significant for CFA oil exporters.
• Public investment and private investment do not show a significant relationship with non-oil growth in CFA oil exporters.
• In contrast, CFA non-oil exporters and LICs show a positive and significant impact of investment on growth.

4. Robustness Checks

• The interaction term between the CFA oil exporter dummy and investment variables is not statistically significant, indicating that CFA oil exporters do not respond differently to investment in terms of growth.
• The effectiveness of public investment is not clearly demonstrated in CFA oil exporters, suggesting institutional and market inefficiencies are major obstacles.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that while real exchange rate appreciation negatively affects growth in all countries, CFA oil producing countries are distinct due to the ineffectiveness of public and private investment in driving non-oil growth. The institutional weaknesses and market imperfections in these countries are major growth inhibitors, and public investment is not as effective as in other low-income countries. The study suggests that policy reforms aimed at improving institutional quality, market efficiency, and public investment effectiveness are essential for sustained non-oil growth in the CFA zone.