2024-05-12-IRENA-到2030年将可再生能源增加三倍_七国集团在将目标转化为行动方面的作用（英）_66页_20mb

Summary of "Tripling Renewable Power by 2030: The Role of the G7 in Turning Targets into Action"

Core Content

The document outlines the global target to triple renewable power generation capacity by 2030, as set during the COP28 negotiations in the United Arab Emirates. This goal is a critical component of the Paris Agreement's efforts to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. IRENA, the International Renewable Energy Agency, plays a central role in tracking progress and providing policy guidance to support this transition.

Main Findings

• Global Progress: In 2023, the world added a record 473 gigawatts (GW) of renewable power capacity, marking a 54% increase from 2022. This growth is largely driven by solar PV, which has seen a significant cost decline.
• Tripling Goal: The target is to increase global renewable power capacity from around 3.4 terawatts (TW) in 2022 to about 11.2 TW in 2030, a net increase of approximately 7.8 TW over eight years.
• Achievability: While the tripling goal is achievable, current trends suggest that most renewable technologies (excluding solar PV) will fall short of the required growth, especially in onshore and offshore wind, hydropower, geothermal, and bioenergy.
• Time Sensitivity: The gap in capacity additions is expected to widen starting in 2026, with the risk of a 20% shortfall by 2030 if no additional action is taken.
• Role of the G7: The G7 has a key role in accelerating the transition, both through direct expansion of renewable power capacity and by addressing barriers such as grid integration, financing, and policy alignment.

Key Challenges

• Deployment Gaps: Current deployment trends indicate that the G7 may miss its collective offshore wind target by 46 GW and the solar PV target by 13%.
• Infrastructure Needs: Accelerated grid modernisation, digitisation, and expansion are essential to support higher renewable energy shares. Investments in grid infrastructure and flexibility options (like energy storage and demand-side management) are lagging.
• Cost of Capital: Rising inflation and borrowing costs have increased the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) for renewable projects in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs), posing a significant barrier to deployment.
• Policy and Regulatory Barriers: Slow permitting processes and inadequate grid connection rules hinder the timely deployment of renewable projects.
• Workforce Misalignment: There is a need for a skilled workforce to support the rapid expansion of renewable power, which requires aligning education and vocational training with the needs of the sector.

Key Recommendations to the G7

• Increase Solar PV Target: The G7 should consider raising its collective solar PV target from at least 1 TW to at least 1.3 TW by 2030, aligning with the 1.5°C pathway.
• Set Onshore Wind Target: The G7 should set a collective onshore wind target of 775 GW by 2030, accompanied by policies to address permitting delays, grid expansion, and workforce development.
• Accelerate Grid Modernisation: G7 governments should work closely with national regulatory bodies and transmission system operators (TSOs) to ensure grid expansion and modernisation align with national and collective targets.
• Promote Flexibility Infrastructure: Implement measures to increase grid flexibility, such as energy storage, demand-side management, and hybrid projects, to support renewable integration.
• Support EMDEs: The G7 should assist EMDEs in scaling up renewable deployment by:
  • Enhancing local project development pipelines.
  • Supporting capacity building and policy reforms.
  • Increasing public financing and creating standardised, accessible financing products.
  • Encouraging regional coordination to improve supply chain resilience and reduce costs.
• Strengthen NDCs: EMDEs need to align their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) with the tripling goal, supported by the G7 through technical and financial assistance.
• Improve Workforce Readiness: Conduct a rapid assessment of skills and workforce availability, and align education and training programmes with the needs of the renewable sector.

Conclusion

The G7 has a critical role in ensuring the global tripling goal is met. The success of this transition depends not only on individual country efforts but also on international collaboration, policy alignment, and infrastructure development. With the right support and coordination, the tripling of renewable power capacity by 2030 is achievable, and will bring significant economic, environmental, and social benefits. IRENA is committed to supporting the G7 in this process through its expertise, knowledge base, and convening power.