2002年-世界发展银行全球_Weathering_the_Storm___The_Impact____________of_the_East_Asian_Crisis_on_Farm_Households_in_Indonesia_and_Thailand_20页_596kb

Summary of "Weathering the Storm: The Impact of the East Asian Crisis on Farm Households in Indonesia and Thailand"

Core Content

This article analyzes the impact of the East Asian financial crisis on farm households in Indonesia and Thailand using household-level survey data collected before and after the crisis. It highlights the differential effects on rural income distribution, particularly focusing on how poor versus better-off households were affected.

Main Points

• Crisis Context: The East Asian financial crisis led to significant currency devaluation and inflation in both Indonesia and Thailand, with Indonesia experiencing more severe economic downturns.
• Impact on Agriculture: Despite the crisis, the agricultural sector in both countries fared relatively well, especially due to the depreciation of currencies, which boosted farmgate prices for export crops like rice.
• Income Changes: Real per capita income for farm households increased in Indonesia, while it declined in Thailand, particularly for the poorest quintiles.
• Income Distribution: The crisis exacerbated income inequality in Thailand but had a more equitable impact in Indonesia.
• Urban-Rural Linkages: Thailand's rural households were more dependent on off-farm income from urban sectors, making them more vulnerable to the crisis. In contrast, Indonesia's urban-rural links were weaker, leading to less severe negative impacts on rural income.

Key Findings

Currency Depreciation and Farmgate Prices

• Currency devaluation led to significant increases in farmgate prices for tradable commodities like rice.
• In Indonesia, rice prices rose by 81% from 1996 to 1998, while in Thailand, the increase was 29%.
• Fertilizer prices in both countries increased, but less than the rate of currency depreciation, benefiting farmers in terms of trade.

Labor Market Effects

• The crisis caused a severe labor market recession in urban areas, particularly in Thailand.
• In Thailand, unskilled workers were most affected, leading to a decline in real wages.
• In Indonesia, real wages fell significantly, but urban-rural linkages were weaker, limiting the impact on rural households.

Income Sources and Diversification

• In Thailand, farm income and off-farm income both declined for the poorest quintiles, while the richest saw increases.
• In Indonesia, farm income increased for all quintiles, and nonfarm income also grew, especially for those in Java.
• The poorest quintiles in Indonesia, many of whom were landless, saw a decline in nonfarm income, but this was less severe than in Thailand.

Remittances and Rural-Urban Ties

• Remittances to rural households were significant in Thailand, especially for the poorest quintiles.
• The decline in remittances during the crisis was substantial, particularly for the poorest households, reflecting strong rural-urban linkages.

Methodological Considerations

• The study uses fertility-adjusted landholdings to better reflect household wealth and exposure to the crisis.
• In Indonesia, nonlandowning households are included in the lowest quintile, which may skew results.
• For Thailand, the sample excludes landless households, which may not be representative of the poorest.

Conclusion

The East Asian financial crisis had a more severe and unequal impact on rural households in Thailand compared to Indonesia. The greater reliance of Thai farm households on off-farm income from urban sectors, especially construction, made them more vulnerable to the crisis. In contrast, Indonesia's weaker urban-rural linkages and more diversified rural income sources helped cushion the poorest from the worst effects. The study underscores the importance of understanding the structure of rural economies and their linkages to urban markets when assessing the impact of economic crises on farm households.