2018年-世界发展银行全球_The_Jobs_Agenda_for_the_Gulf_Cooperation_Council_Countries_41页_1mb

The Jobs Agenda for the Gulf Cooperation Council Countries Summary

Core Content

The Jobs Agenda for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Countries outlines a comprehensive approach to enhancing employment opportunities for GCC nationals, particularly in the private sector, while promoting a more competitive and diversified economy. The report highlights the need for policy reforms in fiscal management, competitiveness, admission, social protection, governance, and education to achieve these goals.

Main Viewpoints

1. Economic Growth and Employment

• The GCC has experienced significant economic growth, with real GDP growth reaching 5.1% between 2000 and 2012.
• Growth has been largely driven by government spending and hydrocarbon revenues, but has not translated into sufficient employment opportunities for citizens outside of the natural resources sector.
• The reliance on low-skilled foreign labor and public sector employment has created distortions in the labor market, limiting incentives for human capital investment and contributing to social exclusion of youth and women.

2. The Social Contract and Public Sector Employment

• Public sector jobs are a central component of the social contract in GCC countries, offering security and higher wages compared to the private sector.
• This has led to a preference for public sector employment among citizens, which in turn hinders the development of a competitive and diversified private sector.
• Reforming this social contract is essential to ensure that citizens are both willing and able to accept private sector jobs.

3. Policy Recommendations

Fiscal Policy

• GCC countries need to shift from unsustainable fiscal practices that rely heavily on hydrocarbon revenues.
• Reducing public sector wages and subsidies to align with productivity levels is critical for long-term fiscal sustainability.
• Fiscal reforms should aim to reduce labor market distortions and promote investment in education and human capital.

Competitiveness Policy

• Business climate reforms are necessary to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) and promote innovation.
• A dynamic business environment that supports firm entry and exit is crucial for job creation and productivity growth.
• Small and medium enterprises (SMEs) are key job creators, but lack the capacity for innovation and growth.

Admission Policy

• The current sponsorship system limits labor mobility and training incentives for foreign workers.
• It also allows employers to pay below the marginal value of labor, leading to a bias towards low-skilled migration.
• Reforming the system to allow for more freedom in labor mobility and a pathway to permanent residency is essential.

Social and Labor Policies

• Social protection policies should be restructured to reduce reliance on public sector employment.
• An alternative approach includes unconditional cash grants (or universal basic income) combined with "in-work benefits" that reward private sector employment.
• These benefits can help maintain a guaranteed minimum income while encouraging participation in the private sector.

Governance

• Public sector employment policies should be reformed to promote meritocracy and performance-based management.
• Rationalizing public sector recruitment to match the needs of the economy is necessary to avoid bloating and inefficiency.
• Governance reforms should be supported by social protection and education reforms to ensure long-term success.

Education and Skills Development

• Education reforms should focus on early childhood development (ECD), improving learning standards, and attracting quality teachers.
• Pre-employment skills development is critical to ensure a smooth transition of citizens into the labor market.
• A skills-based education system is essential to support a knowledge-based and diversified economy.

Key Information

• Fiscal Sustainability: Current fiscal policies are unsustainable due to heavy reliance on hydrocarbon revenues and high public sector wages.
• Productivity Gaps: Labor productivity and total factor productivity have been stagnant or declining over the last decade.
• Private Sector Attractiveness: To increase private sector employment, it is necessary to enhance productivity and improve the quality of private sector jobs.
• Social Protection Reforms: A shift from public sector employment to a more flexible and merit-based system is required to encourage citizens to engage in the private sector.
• Education Reforms: A sequenced approach to education and skills development is needed to prepare citizens for a more competitive and diversified economy.
• Mobility Savings Accounts (MSA): These accounts can provide social protection to migrants and help align labor supply with demand.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes that a successful transition to a more competitive and diversified economy requires a multi-faceted approach involving fiscal, competitiveness, admission, social, and education reforms. By rethinking the current social contract and improving the attractiveness and quality of private sector jobs, GCC countries can create a more inclusive and productive labor market. The World Bank can play a supportive role by offering policy tools, technical assistance, and funding to help GCC governments implement these reforms.