2025-08-11-莱坊-Leading_Indicators_August_2025页_874kb

Australia Economic Overview (Last Updated: End-2024 / Jul-2025)

Core Economic Indicators

• GDP Growth (y/y): 1.3% (Q1 2025) (Interpolated* 1.9% End-2025)
• Unemployment Rate (%): 4.3% (Jun-2025) (Interpolated 4.4% End-2025)
• Core CPI Inflation (y/y): 2.7% (Q2 2025) (Interpolated 3.35% End-2025)
• Cash Rate Target (%): 3.85% (Jul-2025)
• 10-Year Bond Yield (%): 4.3% (31-Jul-2025)

Retail & Consumer Data

• Q2 Retail Sales (y/y): +1.2%
  • Food Retailing: +0.9% y/y, +0.3% q/q
  • Other Retailing: +1.9% y/y, +2.3% q/q
• CPI (Headline / Trimmed) (y/y): 2.1% / 2.7%
  • Consumers expected higher inflation in the year ahead (Feb 2025)

Regional Insights

• Australian States: Vic (+1.5% YoY Inc. 4.5% Unemp), NSW, Qld, WA, Tas
• Euro Area Inflation (y/y avg): 2.5%
• US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index YoY: 2.7%
• UK Retail Sales (SA) (m/m %): +1.0% for Other RETAIL (*Note separate state data)

Markets Data

• ASX 200, S&P 500, Nasdaq monthly avg returns: 10.8%, 17.3%, 24.7% respectively in Apr-25
• USD per AUD: 0.6525 (Jun-2025)
• Iron Ore, LNG (prices): Iron Ore -$7.2%, LNG -$1.2%

Key Outcomes

• Inflation remains elevated despite slight cooling month-on-month figures.
• Core CPI at 2.7% suggests strong underlying inflation expectations.
• Cash rate target at 3.85% underpins predictions from institutions like Oxford Economics and NAB.

*注释：* 数据中'dec-25 appeared duplicated in the original, which has been cleaned. 'Interpolated' refers to trends from end-2024 projections.