2024-09-23-莱坊-Leading_Indicators_August_2024_6页_854kb

报告摘要

GDP Growth (Q1 2024 y/y): 1.1%, projected 1.6% by year-end 2024.
Unemployment Rate (June): 4.2%.
CPI Inflation (Q2 2024 y/y): 3.8%, expected to drop to 3.0% by year-end.
Cash Rate Target (August): 4.35%, projected to remain stable at 4.35%.
Regional Variations: States like Queensland and Western Australia show higher y/y growth (e.g., WA at 2.5%, ACT at 1.5%), while eNSW growth is moderate.
Retail Trends: Food retailing and household goods show positive m/m growth, reflecting stable consumer spending.

High-Inflation Countries: UK and US have elevated inflation (UK projected 8.0% y/y, US ~3.0% latest).
Low-Growth Areas: Euro Area and Japan exhibit slow growth, with UPS inflation moderate year-over-year.
Markets: ASX 200 has increased significantly since 2023 (total return ~12.4%), while US indices like S&P 500 rose over 21%.

Inflation Moderation: Australia's inflation rate is lower than global peers, and it is projected to decrease further.
Monetary Policy: Cash rates are high to control inflation, but yields are relatively stable.
Commodity and Currency: Base metals prices decreased, bulk commodities weakened, and the AUD is stable against USD.

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