IMF-加息周期中货币市场基金的增长_全球分析（英）-2025.7_28页_1mb

IMF Working Paper Summary: MMF Growth During Hiking Cycles

This paper examines the dynamics of money market fund (MMF) growth during monetary tightening cycles, focusing on three key drivers:

• Yield advantage: The spread between MMF yields and bank deposit rates drives inflows, especially during rate hikes.
• Banking turmoil: The 2023 regional bank crisis did not significantly increase MMF inflows beyond yield-seeking behavior.
• Structural characteristics: Public vs. private debt MMFs influence investor allocation, with private MMFs gaining traction when yields rise.

Key findings:

1. Yield-seeking behavior is the primary driver of MMF growth, particularly in the U.S., but MMF inflows during the 2023 turmoil were largely explained by yield differentials, not panic.
2. Flight-to-safety effects were limited globally, with variations across regions due to regulatory frameworks and investor preferences.
3. Private debt MMFs attract more investment during rising MMF yields in jurisdictions like the U.S. and euro area, reflecting a trade-off between safety and returns.
4. Currency denomination plays a role: USD-denominated MMFs outside the U.S. grow faster, underscoring the dollar's role as a safe-haven currency.

The paper highlights that MMFs are becoming increasingly important in global cash management. Their sensitivity to interest rate changes complicates monetary policy transmission, while their role as yield-optimization tools suggests limited use as panic-driven safe havens. Policy implications include enhancing transparency and liquidity management to support financial stability.