【国际能源署】2025钢铁与水泥行业低碳转型的供需策略报告国际合作至关重要

Summary of "Demand and Supply Measures for the Steel and Cement Transition"

Core Content

This report, commissioned by the Climate Club, outlines the necessity of international coordination to accelerate the market growth of near-zero emissions steel and cement. The steel and cement industries are central to global decarbonization efforts, contributing to 14% of direct energy and process-related emissions, and are thus critical in achieving net zero emissions by mid-century. The report highlights the importance of both demand-side and supply-side measures in driving the transition to low-emission materials.

Main Points

• Market Growth Needs: There is a need for a massive scale-up of markets for near-zero emissions steel and cement to meet global net zero goals. Current announced capacities for near-zero emissions steel and cement by 2030 are only about 10 Mt and 35 Mt, respectively, which is far below the required levels.

• Market Potential: The global market for near-zero emissions steel could reach USD 300 billion by 2035 and USD 550 billion by 2035 on a net zero pathway. For cement, the market could reach USD 100 billion by 2035, depending on policy settings.

• Barriers to Growth: Early adopters face high costs and risks, with near-zero emissions steel and cement production costs estimated to be 10% to 125% higher than conventional production. These costs are exacerbated by the international nature of industrial markets, making early investments particularly risky.

• Role of Governments: Governments can play a key role in reducing risk and uncertainty by implementing targeted demand and supply-side policies. These policies can include public procurement, contracts for difference, and regulatory measures to support innovation and early deployment.

• International Collaboration: Given the global nature of the market and the need for large-scale technology demonstrations, international collaboration is essential. It can help accelerate the transition, reduce costs, and mitigate carbon leakage.

• Collective Pledges: The report suggests that Climate Club members could form a collective pledge to increase the market share of near-zero emissions steel and cement. This pledge would include specific, time-bound targets and a range of supporting actions.

Key Policy Measures

Demand-side Measures

• Public Procurement: Governments can commit to purchasing near-zero emissions materials, creating early lead markets.
• Contracts for Difference: These can help cover the price premium for early adopters.
• Embodied Carbon Limits: Setting limits on the carbon content of buildings and vehicles can drive demand for low-emission materials.
• Product Design Codes: Policies that consider lifecycle emissions in product design can encourage the use of sustainable materials.

Supply-side Measures

• Technology Demonstrations: Support for early commercial deployment through grants, tax credits, and other financing.
• Enabling Infrastructure: Development of low-emissions hydrogen, electricity, and CO₂ transportation and storage infrastructure.
• Retrofit and Replacement: Policies that require existing high-emission facilities to be retrofitted or replaced with near-zero technologies.
• Carbon Pricing: Economy-wide carbon pricing can improve the cost-competitiveness of low-emission materials, especially when combined with targeted measures.

Key Information

• Current Demand: Offtake agreements for near-zero emissions steel account for less than 2 Mt per year by 2030, with additional commitments from the First Movers Coalition and RMI Sustainable Steel Buyers Platform.
• Collective Pledge Proposal: Climate Club members could pledge to increase the global market share of near-zero emissions steel to 35% and cement to 25% by 2035.
• Supporting Actions: These include creating demand through public procurement, scaling production with financial support, ensuring new capacity is near-zero emissions capable, and reducing reliance on high-emission materials.

Conclusion

International coordination is vital to overcome the barriers to market growth for near-zero emissions materials. By working together, governments can reduce risks, increase market certainty, and drive the necessary technological and infrastructural changes. The report proposes a collective pledge as a strategic tool to align policy ambitions and accelerate the transition to sustainable steel and cement production.