2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Israel_2018_Article_IV_Consultation_66页_5mb

Israel: 2018 Article IV Consultation Summary

Core Content

The 2018 Article IV consultation by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) with Israel assessed the country's economic performance, growth prospects, and policy frameworks. The consultation highlighted both achievements and long-term challenges, emphasizing the need for structural reforms to sustain inclusive growth and macroeconomic stability.

Main Economic Developments

• Growth: Israel's economy grew at 3.4% in 2017, supported by strong domestic demand and higher global growth. This growth continued into 2018 at a similar rate, with the potential for a gradual rise in inflation.
• Unemployment: Unemployment fell to below 4% in early 2018, contributing to broad-based wage growth averaging 3.25%.
• Inflation: Inflation remained below the Bank of Israel (BoI) target range of 1–3%, primarily due to the shekel's appreciation, increased retail competition, and government cost-of-living measures.
• Housing Market: Housing price increases slowed to under 2% in 2017, and transaction volumes declined. However, housing affordability remains a challenge.
• Public Finance: The fiscal deficit was 2% of GDP in 2017, but 2.9% when excluding one-off revenues. Public debt declined to 61% of GDP.

Key Policy Recommendations

A. Monetary and Exchange Rate Policies

• Monetary policy should remain accommodative until inflation is on a durable upward trend.
• The BoI's low policy rate (0.1%) is appropriate given low inflation and spillovers from global monetary policies.
• Exchange rate flexibility should be the first line of defense against external shocks, with foreign exchange intervention limited to addressing disorderly market conditions.

B. Financial Sector and Housing Policies

• Financial sector reforms are necessary to strengthen competition and oversight.
• The establishment of the Financial Stability Committee (FSC) is recommended to close regulatory gaps.
• Banking supervision should focus on risk management and adopt international standards like Solvency II.
• The "Buyer's Price" program should be temporary to support fiscal health.
• Measures to improve housing affordability and supply responsiveness are needed.

C. Fiscal Policy and Infrastructure

• Fiscal policy should support growth while maintaining buffers.
• The general government deficit should be limited to 3% of GDP by 2019.
• Public investment management should be improved to address infrastructure gaps, especially in transportation.
• Infrastructure investment should be efficiently managed to ensure high-quality and timely projects.
• Revenue generation should be prioritized to reduce fiscal drag, with a focus on reducing tax benefits.

D. Doing Business Inclusively

• Improving the business environment is essential, particularly through modernizing regulations and reducing administrative burdens.
• A "one-stop shop" for regulatory compliance is recommended.
• Reducing bureaucratic bottlenecks and increasing regulatory impact assessments can enhance inclusiveness and productivity.

Long-Term Challenges

• Productivity Growth: Despite a strong high-tech sector, productivity growth is modest and poses a challenge to long-term growth potential.
• Demographic Trends: A growing share of the working-age population with lower skills and labor participation (Haredi and Israeli-Arab communities) threatens future growth and stability.
• Infrastructure Gaps: High traffic congestion and other infrastructure deficiencies need urgent attention.
• Poverty and Inequality: High poverty and inequality persist, especially in the Israeli-Arab and Haredi populations, due to low labor participation and skills.

Outlook and Risks

• Growth Prospects: Growth is expected to remain around 3.5% in the next few years, with a gradual increase in inflation.
• External Risks: Exchange rate volatility and weak growth in Israel's main trading partners could affect exports and growth.
• Housing Risks: A moderate decline in housing prices is welcomed, but sharp declines could impact growth.
• Regional Risks: Geopolitical tensions in the region, particularly in the West Bank, may affect tourism and domestic demand.
• Fiscal Sustainability: Rising deficits and debt could threaten stability if not managed carefully.

Key Issues and Reforms

• Education and Training: Reforms are needed to enhance productivity and employability, particularly for low-income households.
• EITC Expansion: The Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) should be expanded and administered more effectively to reduce inequality and improve labor participation.
• Business Environment: Reducing trade barriers and improving regulatory efficiency can support inclusiveness and productivity.
• Public Investment: Efficient and targeted public investment is crucial to address infrastructure needs and support long-term growth.

Next Steps

• The next Article IV consultation with Israel is proposed to follow the standard 12-month cycle.
• The IMF encourages continued implementation of recommendations, including those from the 2017 consultation and 2016 technical assistance.