IMF-外部资产负债表货币（英）-2023.11-50页_789kb

Summary of IMF Working Paper: Currencies of External Balance Sheets

This paper analyzes the currency composition of external balance sheets for 50 economies, representing over 90% of global GDP, from 1990 to 2020. The key findings highlight the dominance of the US dollar and euro in global holdings, with these two currencies making up approximately 50% of cross-border holdings. Despite volatility, there is a significant shift toward longer foreign currency positions, particularly in emerging markets, reducing their traditional vulnerability to currency mismatches.

Key Insights:

• Currency Dominance: The US dollar and euro remain primary currencies in external balance sheets, with the dollar's dominance increasing since 2014.
• Evolving exposures: Emerging markets have reduced short currency positions through structural reforms, improved asset accumulation, and changes in liability composition.
• Factors Driving Trends: Changes are influenced by trade openness, institutions, capital controls, and economic development. Volatility in exchange rates and GDP growth correlates with currency exposures.
• Wealth Transfers: Valuation changes from exchange rate and asset price movements during crises like the GFC and COVID-19 redistributed wealth, amplifying or stabilizing imbalances differently across countries.
• Policy Recommendation: Financially weighted exchange rates, which better capture wealth effects, may provide more accurate metrics than trade-weighted ones for analyzing currency impacts.

The paper underscores the importance of assessing both aggregate and granular currency exposures for understanding external vulnerability and informing policy.