IMF-社会动荡的经济后果：来自首次公开募股的证据（英）-2023.11-52页_923kb

Increasing social unrest, highlighted by data from major regions post-pandemic, poses significant economic and financial risks. This study, drawing on a large sample of initial public offerings (IPOs) from 36 markets, investigates the link between social unrest and IPO underpricing. The research examines two competing effects: social unrest might increase uncertainty, leading to higher returns, or decrease investor sentiment, potentially causing lower returns. Analysis shows that greater social unrest is consistently associated with reduced IPO underpricing, suggesting that the negative impact on investor sentiment dominates any increase in uncertainty. This finding is robust across various methods, including instrumental variable analysis and tests for nonlinearity.

Factors such as institutional quality, limits to arbitrage, and cultural characteristics moderated the effect. Higher-quality institutions weaken this association, while constraints on short selling amplify it. The implications are substantial, as social unrest not only affects macroeconomic outcomes and stock markets but also impacts young firms' ability to raise capital through IPOs. This provides new insights and raises questions about how investors and issuers should navigate these effects in real-world scenarios.