2025-05-15-Jefferies-通用电气（GE）_管理层会议纪要巴西山区的MRO瑰宝_24页_407kb

USA Aerospace & Defense Electronics Equity Research: GE Analysis Summary

Key Insights

1. GE Celma MRO Operations:

• GE Celma (Brazil) performs ~25% of GE's total shop visits (≈600/year), expanding capacity to >1000/year by 2026 due to LEAP program investment.
• Achieves lean operations, with TAT targets of 60 days vs. current 90+ days.
• In-house repairs offer ~50% cost savings vs. new parts, driving profitability.

2. Crown Jewel Status:

• Celma exemplifies GE's operational excellence via lean practices (kaizen), long-tenured teams, and goal-driven culture.
• Services revenue driven by narrowbody engines (CFM56, LEAP) and external repair demand, with backlog exceeding $140BB.

3. Valuation & Targets:

• Price Target: $260 (16% upside) based on 2026E EPS and EBITDA multiples.
• GE trades at significant premiums (44% P/E, 55% EV/EBITDA, 45% FCF Yield) vs. peers.
• 3-year revenue CAGR assumed for CFM56 and LEAP fleets, underpinned by spare part DD and pricing power.

4. Growth Catalysts:

• CFM56 shop visits peak in 2027, plateauing at ~2000 SVs, with LEAP volumes set to double from 2024.
• Hydrogen engine R&D efforts (RISE) target 20% fuel savings by 2035.

5. Risks:

• Supply chain disruptions, delayed LEAP durability improvements, or macro-driven aftermarket slowdown could impact growth.

Summary:
Jefferies maintains a Buy rating on GE with a $260 price target. The analysis highlights GE Aerospace’s strong MRO position (celma), lean operational efficiencies, and growth in narrowbody services. Valuation reflects market confidence in its aftermarket capabilities.