2025-05-29-Bernstein-速览_液化空气美洲公司首席执行官在战略决策会议上的发言_11页_334kb

Summary

Key Points

• Rating and Price Target: Outperform with a 12-month price target of €185.00, representing a 2% upside from the current close of €181.98.

• Performance Focus: Air Liquide emphasizes a culture shift led from the top, focusing on improved execution, increased confidence in financial targets, and strategies to close the performance gap with LINDE.

• Pricing Discipline: The acquisition of Airgas instilled value-based pricing discipline, enabling AL to beat inflation. Pricing is now a "default" strategy, reinforced by revised sales incentives.

• Efficiencies: Delayering and streamlining efforts have cultivated a "perpetual savings culture." AL aims to significantly exceed its €400 million annual efficiencies target, driving structural savings.

• Portfolio and Backlog: The company is eliminating laggard businesses and pursuing bolt-on acquisitions to build density. Backlog remains strong (€4.5 billion in Q1 2025), supporting growth; the ExxonMobil clean hydrogen project is progressing.

• Margin Potential: AL could lift its underlying EBIT margin by approximately 500 basis points (c. 26.5% target), translating to a ~10% CAGR in EPS from 2025–2030. Valuation using a ~28x NTM P/E, higher than LINDE's ~30x.

• Electronics Segment: Despite comprising ~9% of revenue, electronics accounts for ~1/3 of the backlog (~€4.5 billion). Growth is driven by reshoring and AI, with AL's competitive advantage in Advanced Materials.

• Geographic Factors: Air Liquide remains confident on the Exxon hydrogen project, with regulatory hurdles manageable if construction starts in 2025. Faster progress is anticipated in Europe due to supportive regulation.

• Risks: Potential price target reversal (€10 impact) from performance setbacks, recession, pricing issues, or delays in the backlog.

Table: Financial Highlights

Air Liquide is viewed as undervalued relative to peers like LINDE due to superior earnings potential and operational discipline, with a strong recommendation based on outperforming market indices.