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Boeing Co: CEO Kelly Ortberg at Bernstein's Strategic Decisions Conference 2025

Core Content Summary

Boeing's CEO, Kelly Ortberg, discussed the company's strategic priorities, challenges, and opportunities at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference in 2025. The key areas covered include financial performance, production ramp-up, certification progress, and market dynamics.

Main Points

1. Financial and Strategic Priorities

• Balance Sheet Restoration: The top priority for Boeing is to restore its balance sheet, followed by stabilizing the business and increasing production.
• Tariff Impact: Boeing is aware of the impact of tariffs, particularly from Japan and Italy, which affect the 787 program. However, they expect the environment to remain dynamic, and the company is closely monitoring retaliatory tariffs, such as those affecting China.
• China Market: Deliveries to China airlines are expected to restart in June after a halt due to tariffs.

2. Production and Program Progress

• 737 MAX Production: Boeing is close to achieving a 38/month production rate and plans to maintain this rate to ensure sustainability. They aim to increase production to 42/month once performance is confirmed, with a target of 47/month by 2026.
• 787 Production: The 787 program has seen improvements in the supply chain. The production rate has increased from 5/month to 7/month, with the potential to reach 10/month in the future.
• 777X: Most certifications are completed, and the CEO is optimistic about short-term testing and potential deliveries in 2026.
• 777 Freighter: The program is expected to conclude in 2027, transitioning to the 777XF configuration.

3. New Product Development

• 737-7 and 737-10 Certifications: Boeing is close to certifying the 737-7, while some certifications for the 737-10 remain pending. The company is continuing production for the current programs.
• Next Generation Program: The next generation program is not currently in development. Engine technology is a key driver, but it is not yet ready.

4. Defense Segment

• F-47 Program: This is a significant win for Boeing, with the CEO expressing satisfaction with the product and investment. The program is expected to have lower contract margins than the overall company margins, but will benefit from synergies with the commercial segment.

5. Business Group (BGS) Update

• Jeppesen Divestment: The divestiture of Jeppesen is expected to occur by the end of the year. While there may be a short-term negative impact, the BGS business is considered core to Boeing's operations, fitting well into defense and commercial divisions.

Key Information

• Stock Rating: Boeing is rated "Outperform" with a target price of $249.00.
• Valuation Methodology: The company is valued using a terminal EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.9x, based on a blend of commercial and defense multiples.
• Risks: Potential downside risks include extended strikes, worsening supply chain issues, and certification delays for the 737 MAX and 777X. Upside risks include faster-than-expected production recovery and improved cash flow.
• Investment Banking Services: Investment banking services are provided to certain companies, with the distribution of ratings and investment banking services being updated quarterly.

Summary of Ratings and Investment Banking Services

These figures represent the number and percentage of companies in each category to whom affiliates of Bernstein and Autonomous provided investment banking services.

Disclaimer and Legal Information

• Conflict of Interest: Bernstein and its affiliates have received compensation from Boeing for investment banking and non-investment banking services.
• Legal Distribution: This document is distributed to qualified investors and is subject to various legal restrictions depending on the region.
• Research Independence: The report is prepared by an independent analyst and is not subject to FINRA restrictions for retail investors.
• Compliance and Contact: Compliance officers and contact information are provided for different regions, including India, where Ms. Rupal Talati is the Compliance officer / Grievance officer.

Additional Information

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