2025-05-27-Jefferies-英国服装_有记录以来阳光最充足的四月_11页_291kb

UK Apparel, Footwear & Textiles Equity Research Summary

Key Market Drivers

• Weather Impact: Unprecedented sunshine in April 2025 drove the UK clothing industry volume growth to +1.4%, the strongest since early 2023, cemented by the sunniest April on record.
• Channel Dynamics: Offline sales improved modestly (+0.1%), while total market growth accelerated to +1.3%, suggesting broader weather-related tailwinds. However, year-over-year Easter shifts and mix effects remain uncertain.

Retailer Performances

• Strong Leaders: Primark confirmed +3.1% year-on-year sales, benefiting from favorable weather compared to multi-channel competitors. Next posted a robust +3.1 percentage point acceleration in its platform growth to +15.8%. Marks & Spencer continued outperforming peers (+9%) amidst soft consumer conditions.
• Acceleration in Fashion: Zara (+16.1%) saw a significant two-year stack gain (+28.5%), outpacing H&M (+8.9%). Awar noted momentum in youthful apparel.
• Adidas & M&S Update: Adidas faced subdued volume (-0.3%), potentially due to weak comparative bases, but its NKE channel lag improved. Marks & Spencer projected buoyant 2026 valuations with reduced risk exposure.

Valuation & Investment Outlook

• Rating Upgrades: Next, Marks & Spencer, and Inditex (Zara owner) are rated "Buy," with targets including £440 for M&S and €54 for Inditex.
• Risks Highlighted: For all, risks included macro uncertainty, competitive pressures, supply chain issues, consumer confidence shifts, and execution challenges in space reconfigurations or margins.

Analyst Input

• James Grzinic, Frederick Wild, and Bhumi Kanabar authored the report, emphasizing data from Kantar. Technical charts show relative growth trajectories and volume momentum boosts from favorable weather.