20120226-Bain-China_e-commerce_Heading_toward_RMB_1.5_trillion_12页_1mb

报告摘要

China's e-commerce market is projected to reach RMB 1.5 trillion (approx. USD 207 billion) by 2013, growing from RMB 460 billion in 2010. This represents a triple-digit increase over three years.
This growth is fueled primarily by the rapidly expanding B2C segment, which is expected to grow at a 145% CAGR (2007-2010) and likely sustain a similar rate through 2013.
By 2013, online sales are expected to constitute 7% of total Chinese retail sales, potentially surpassing the US and Europe.
The overall market is forecasted to grow at a 48% CAGR through 2013.

C2C marketplaces (e.g., Taobao) currently dominate the market with an estimated 80% market share, compared to 20% for B2C platforms.
The e-commerce ecosystem includes crucial enablers: user-friendly platforms, secure payment methods (online payment ~85% market share), and reliable delivery services (~74% CAGR for the delivery industry, 2007-2010).
Geographically, e-commerce usage and spending are concentrated in Tier-1 cities.

Key motivators for online shopping shift from primarily price (historically the top reason) to also include convenience (19% of surveyed shoppers) and variety (15%).
The online consumer base is fragmented and evolving, with different segments having distinct motivations, spending patterns, and preferred channels.
Bain identified four main customer segments based on behavior:
1. Digital Leaders (30%): Highest income, most purchases (avg. 50+), value both brand and good price. Willing to pay for quality/convenience/service.
2. Value Seekers (20%): Mid-to-low income, frequent shoppers, highly influenced by price, primarily buy apparel/cosmetics. Look for low prices.
3. Old School (16%): Discomfort with online complexity (especially C2C/B2C). Lower online spend, interested in online price comparison and booking information (like train tickets).
4. Bare Minimum (34%): Lowest online spend. View shopping time consumption. Students and young low-income individuals are prominent.
Payment: Secure third-party payment (e.g., Alipay, TenPay) is preferred. Delivery speed is critical.

The market involves traditional retailers (e.g., Wal-Mart via 360buy/Suning), pure-play e-commerce companies (e.g., Taobao/Tmall), and third-party platforms (similar to Amazon/Southpole).
C2C platforms (like Taobao, Youguo Youpin) are prevalent and dominant. Taobao is the largest C2C site and is expanding into B2C via Tmall.
B2C platforms specialize often, with players like 360buy.com (Electronics), Vancl (Apparel), and Uniqlo (via Tmall, Apparel). Gome and Suning focus primarily on Electronics & Home Appliances.
Grocery online is a growing area, with players like Yihaodian (YHD) entering the market.
Cosmetics is noted for high growth potential.
Mobile commerce & virtual goods are mentioned but excluded from assessment.
Competition is intense, particularly in Electronics/Hardware and Apparel.

Key factors boosting e-commerce include: secure payment, reliable delivery, standardized regulations (favoring local/JV partners), and increasing comfortable customers.
Growth medium to long term is primarily B2C (expected +48% CAGR).
Traditional players: Need to adopt an omnichannel strategy to leverage their physical stores and build upon online capabilities (customer relationship, loyalty, service). Link online and offline channels for picking up online orders and in-store returns/exchanges.
Pure-play players: Need to focus on scalability, customer loyalty/retention, operational efficiency, and potentially exploring offline channels/strategic partnerships. Taobao and Tmall are investing heavily in branding/paying for mass-market adoption.

China presents a significant opportunity for e-commerce growth. Reaching RMB 1.5 trillion by 2013 depends on attracting more customers, increasing their average spending, and developing B2C capabilities.
The future favors players who can create a seamless omnichannel experience, understand diverse customer segments, optimize pricing and assortments, and leverage the complex ecosystem effectively.

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