20251205-东亚期货-能源化工周报—PVC_14页_925kb

报告摘要

Date: 2025年12月5日
Analyst: 兰雪
License: 沪证监许可【2012】1515号 (Trading Consultancy License)
Key Focus: PVC (polyvinyl chloride) fundamentals, including price trends, supply-demand balance, inventory, and cost-profit analysis.

PVC prices showed mixed changes this week. Ethylene-based PVC averaged 72.65元/吨, down 1.15% from previous week. Electric stone method prices were not fully specified but noted a decline. Overall, prices reflect moderate downward pressure.

Supply side: PVC producer capacity utilization was 79.89%, decreased by 0.41% weekly. Output volumes declined week-on-week, though year-to-year comparisons were not provided. Electric stone and ethylene methods each saw minor percentage changes in utilization, but overall supply decreased.
Demand side: Downstream activity weakened, with sample PVC sector shipments down approximately 2.42% weekly and 9.5–10%. Export orders dropped, adding to downward pressure on demand. Weekly industry data indicated declining consumer activity.

Inventory levels increased slightly, with PVC factory stocks at around 52.93万吨 and social inventory at similar levels, both showing weekly increases. Profit margins under electric stone and ethylene methods showed strains, though specific profit figures were not fully detailed; upstream costs provide some support. Overall, industry profit declined due to reduced demand.

The basis strengthened, with report noting limited downward price space due to cost supports from PVC-related products like liquid chlorine. Monthly spreads indicate tightness, adding to price resilience.

Week-on-week, both supply and demand decreased, leading to a small cumulative inventory build. However, year-over-year comparisons suggested higher PVC production volumes. decreased demand was supported by weaker export orders and lower downstream activity. Upstream liquid chlorine prices remained strong, offering cost underpinning. The basis strengthening indicated that downward price adjustments may be constrained, favoring a cautious view for the medium term.

Markets face downward pressures from reduced demand and inventory build-up, but cost supports limit significant declines. Short-term outlook suggests stability, with fundamentals pointing to a wait-and-see approach.
Endereço e Contato
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Disclaimer: Information is based on public sources; accuracy not guaranteed. This report serves as reference only and does not constitute investment advice.

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