20251114-东亚期货-能源化工周报—PVC_14页_976kb

PVC Market Analysis Summary

Key Price Trends

• PVC weekly average prices: Electric method at 5230 CNY/ton (down 0.58% month-over-month), ethylene method at 5323 CNY/ton (up 3.83% month-over-month).

Supply Situation

• PVC producer output volume at 41.53 million tons, down 2.77% month-over-month, with electric method and ethylene method showing respective declines.

Demand Overview

• PVC downstream utilization rate remains stable, with steady demand from various sectors.

Inventory and Profit Analysis

• High inventory levels create pressure, with constraints from elevated inventory and basis strengths limiting lower price space.
• Costs and profits vary by method, reflecting industry challenges.

Fundamental Outlook

• Supply reduction balanced with stable demand, but alkyline losses widen, and export orders lag monthly.
• Prices are experiencing volatility due to strong basis and cost support, with limited downside risk.