2010-04-05-皮尤-U.S._Birth_Rate_Decline_Linked_to_Recession_13页_101kb

U.S. Birth Rate Decline Linked to Recession

Summary:

This report from the Pew Research Center analyzes the decline in the U.S. birth rate starting in 2008, linking it to the economic recession. Based on data from 25 states, the study finds a strong association between state-level changes in fertility rates and economic indicators.

Key Findings:

• Timing: After years of growth, national and state-level births peaked in 2007 and began to decline in 2008.
• State Variation: While most states (22/25) saw a decline or leveling off of births/fertility in 2008, 3 states actually had increases. Variation allowed for nuanced comparisons with economic conditions.
• Correlations: Strong statistically significant correlations were found between 2007-2008 fertility changes and:
  • Per capita income changes (r=0.56)
  • Prior year's foreclosure rates (-0.54)
  • State GDP growth over the business cycle
  • Claim rates for unemployment benefits
• Leading Economic Indicators: States showed economic declines before the 2008 birth rate drop, with income and employment growth slowing in many states prior to 2007.
• Economic Impact: States with larger economic declines had proportionally larger birth rate declines (e.g., Arizona -4.6%, Florida -0.5%).
• Economic Stability: Conversely, North Dakota saw fertility growth alongside high income growth and low foreclosures.
• Recession Impact: Surveys showed about 14% of Americans ages 18-34 and 8% of those 35-44 say they delayed having children due to the recession.

Analyst Notes:

The study suggests economic factors (particularly job security and financial instability) influenced fertility decisions, making birth control effective even under non-recession conditions. While past recessions have been linked to fertility declines, other social factors likely influence long-term trends. The analysis is limited to states that finalized their 2008 fertility data.

Conclusions:

The research confirms recession is statistically associated with declines in U.S. fertility rates, particularly at state levels. The observed patterns suggest economic conditions are an important, measurable factor influencing birth decisions, though not the sole determinant.