战略与国际研究中心-Trends-in-Extremist-Violence-and-Terrorism-in-Europe-through-End_94页_3mb

Summary of Trends in Extremist Violence and Terrorism in Europe through End-2016

Core Content

The report "Trends in Extremist Violence and Terrorism in Europe through End-2016" by Anthony H. Cordesman analyzes the patterns of terrorist attacks and related activities in the European Union (EU) and highlights the broader global context. It discusses the decline in the number of attacks and the fluctuation in arrests, as well as the evolving nature of extremist groups, particularly jihadist and left-wing violent extremists.

Main Points

1. Terrorist Attack Statistics in 2016

• A total of 142 attacks were reported across eight EU Member States.
• 47 attacks were completed, resulting in 142 fatalities and 379 injuries.
• The UK reported 76 attacks, the highest number among all Member States.
• 99 attacks were attributed to ethno-nationalist and separatist extremists, while 27 were by left-wing extremists, mainly in Italy.
• 13 attacks were classified as jihadist, with 6 linked to Islamic State (IS).
• Explosives were used in 40% of attacks, while firearms usage dropped significantly from 57 in 2015 to 6 in 2016.

2. Arrests for Terrorist Offences

• 1002 arrests were made in 2016, a decline from 1077 in 2015.
• Jihadist-related arrests reached 718, with a significant increase in France (from 188 in 2014 to 429 in 2016) and the Netherlands (from 20 to 36).
• Left-wing and separatist arrests decreased to 31 and 84 respectively from 67 and 168 in 2015.
• Right-wing arrests remained low at 12 in 2016.
• Women made up 26% of arrestees in 2016, a notable increase from 18% in 2015.

3. Jihadist Threat and Recruitment Tactics

• IS and al-Qaeda were the main jihadist groups active in 2016.
• IS shifted its focus to lone-wolf attacks in the West, encouraging individuals to carry out attacks without traveling to conflict zones.
• IS provided practical guidance for attacks in its publications, such as the magazine Rumiyah, which included instructions on using knives, vehicles, and arson.
• IS also encouraged attackers to leave evidence of their allegiance and motivation.
• Al-Qaeda attempted to refute IS's leadership claims and adopt similar propaganda strategies to compete for influence in the global jihadist movement.

4. Non-Terrorist Violent Acts by Right-Wing Extremists

• An increasing number of right-wing violent assaults targeted asylum seekers and ethnic minorities.
• These acts were not classified as terrorism, with only one exception in the Netherlands in 2016.

5. Global Perspective on Terrorism

• From 1970 to 2015, nearly 40% of all terrorist attacks occurred in Iraq, Nigeria, and Afghanistan.
• Jihadist attacks were responsible for the highest number of casualties and fatalities globally.
• Western nations (including the U.S. and most of Europe) experienced significantly fewer terrorist deaths compared to the rest of the world.
• Mass-fatality attacks were rare in Western Europe, with the 2004 Madrid attacks being the deadliest in the region during the period 2000–2014.

Key Information

• The number of attacks in the EU has been declining since 2014, with a 33% drop in 2016 compared to 2015.
• Despite the decline in attacks, the number of arrests increased, especially for jihadist-related offences.
• Jihadist attacks in the EU were responsible for the majority of casualties and fatalities.
• Left-wing extremist attacks saw a 100% increase from 2015 to 2016.
• Right-wing extremist attacks were not widely reported as terrorism, except in the Netherlands.
• The report emphasizes the increased use of social media by jihadist groups for recruitment and incitement.
• IS is training operatives in Syria and Iraq to attack the West, and al-Qaeda is attempting to redefine its strategy to remain relevant in the global jihadist landscape.

Conclusion

The report highlights a declining trend in the number of terrorist attacks in the EU, but notes that the threat remains significant, especially from jihadist groups. The increased number of arrests suggests improved counter-terrorism efforts. However, the rise in left-wing extremist attacks and the increased vulnerability of non-EU countries like Switzerland due to their international profile and association with Western countries are also important considerations. The global context underscores that jihadist terrorism continues to be the most lethal form of terrorism worldwide, with Western Europe experiencing a relatively low number of fatalities compared to other regions.