战略与国际研究中心-The-Patterns-in-Global-Terrorism_-1970_388页_14mb

Summary of Global Trends in Terrorism: 1970-2016

Introduction

Terrorism has emerged as a dominant national security threat in the 21st century, characterized by its complexity and the involvement of states, extremists, and non-state actors. It is closely linked to civil wars, insurgencies, and asymmetric warfare, often driven by ideological, ethnic, and religious factors. The report provides an overview of global terrorism trends from 1970 to 2016, highlighting the challenges in data collection and analysis.

Core Content

The report is based on data from the START database and other sources such as EU/Europol, IHS Jane's, and the IEP. It emphasizes the importance of understanding the regional nature of terrorism and the limitations of data due to differing definitions, sources, and methods of analysis.

Global Trends 1970-2016

• Terrorist Incidents: From 1970 to 2016, there were a total of 170,350 incidents globally.
• Regional Distribution:
  • Middle East and North Africa (MENA): 46,511 incidents
  • South Asia: 41,497 incidents
  • Sub-Saharan Africa: 15,491 incidents
  • Western Europe: 16,307 incidents
  • North America: 3,346 incidents
• High-Casualty Incidents: These increased over time, with the majority occurring in heavily Islamic regions.
• Weapons Used: Firearms, explosives, and bombs were the most commonly used weapons.
• Casualties: There was a notable increase in the number of people kidnapped or taken hostage, especially in Iraq and Syria.

2011-2016 Trends

• Global Incidents: 70,767 incidents occurred between 2011 and 2016.
• Geographic Concentration: Attacks were heavily concentrated in a few countries, particularly in the Middle East and South Asia.
• ISIS Dominance: The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) was the most active group, responsible for the majority of attacks and deaths in the region.
• Seasonal Patterns: Attacks peaked in May and June in previous years, but in 2016, the peak was due to a sharp increase in Iraq, not seasonal factors.
• Casualties: Total deaths from terrorist attacks decreased by 13% in 2016 compared to 2015, while injuries decreased by 10%. However, the number of people kidnapped or taken hostage increased by 26%.

Key Perpetrators

• ISIS and Al Qaida: These groups were the primary perpetrators in the Middle East and North Africa, with ISIS showing a significant increase in attacks and deaths.
• Other Groups: The Taliban, Haqqani Network, and Boko Haram were also prominent in the region.
• International Networks: While international networks play a role, the nature of terrorism varies significantly by country.

Regional Analysis

• North America and the U.S.: The U.S. experienced 175 incidents from 2001 to 2016, with a focus on jihadist and foreigner-related attacks.
• Europe and Russia: Western Europe saw 16,307 incidents, while the EU and Europol provided detailed and credible data. Russia and Ukraine had significant but less documented terrorist activities.
• Middle East and North Africa (MENA): This region dominated global terrorism, with 60,320 incidents in 2011-2016. The rise of ISIS and its affiliates marked a significant shift.
• South Asia: Countries like Pakistan and India saw high numbers of attacks and casualties.
• Sub-Saharan Africa: This region also experienced a surge in terrorist activity, with countries such as Nigeria and Somalia being particularly affected.
• Other Regions: Limited data on nuclear, biological, and chemical attacks, with only 92 incidents reported from 1970 to 2016.

Key Uncertainties and Problems in the Data

• No Consensus on Definitions: The lack of a clear definition of terrorism leads to inconsistencies in data.
• Data Sources: Reliance on media and open-source data introduces uncertainty, with the U.S. lacking detailed official reporting.
• Regional Variability: There are significant differences in reporting levels across regions, especially in Central and East Asia.
• State Terrorism: The report notes the lack of data on state-sponsored terrorism, such as large-scale civilian casualties in Syria.
• Misclassification: Confusion between insurgency and terrorism, and the politicization of labeling threats as "terrorist."

Conclusion

The report underscores the importance of regional analysis in understanding terrorism trends and highlights the challenges in data consistency and reliability. While global trends show a decrease in attacks and deaths in 2016, the threat remains concentrated in certain regions, particularly the Middle East and South Asia. The analysis also points out that the majority of casualties are among Muslim populations, and that the perception of terrorism in the West is often exaggerated.