2021-09-30-亚开行-亚太区域合作与一体化指数_增强的框架_分析和应用（英）_160页_7mb

Summary of the Asia-Pacific Regional Cooperation and Integration Index (ARCII)

Core Content

The Asia-Pacific Regional Cooperation and Integration Index (ARCII) is a comprehensive tool developed by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) to measure and analyze the progress of regional cooperation and integration (RCI) in the Asia-Pacific region. The index has been enhanced to capture a broader range of dimensions and indicators, reflecting the growing complexity of RCI in the region.

Main Trends and Key Findings

Regional Integration Trends

• The enhanced ARCII framework shows that regional integration in Asia remains positive, with a moderate 7% increase in the overall ARCLI (Asia-Pacific Regional Cooperation and Integration Index) from 2006 to 2018.
• Asia's performance in trade and investment, regional value chains, and people and social integration is comparable to that of the European Union.
• The technology and digital connectivity dimension has seen the highest improvement, with a 31% increase between 2006 and 2018.
• The money and finance dimension still shows significant gaps, with Asia's estimate being only half that of the European Union.

Subregional Performance

• Southeast Asia and East Asia report the highest overall regional integration.
• The largest subregional differences are observed in the trade and investment, infrastructure and connectivity, and people and social integration dimensions.
• Technology and digital connectivity and environmental cooperation show less pronounced subregional gaps, indicating more borderless integration in these areas.
• South and Central Asian economies have the most potential for improvement across different dimensions.

Dimensional Improvements

• The enhanced framework expands the number of dimensions from six to eight, including digital connectivity and environmental cooperation.
• New indicators in the money and finance dimension include capital account openness and exchange rate interdependencies.
• In the regional value chain dimension, a new indicator on value-added contributions provides a useful measure of economic participation.
• The infrastructure and connectivity dimension includes a new measure of intraregional passenger flight capacity.
• The institutional arrangements dimension now includes participation in international intergovernmental organizations.

Key Indicators and Data

• Liner Shipping Bilateral Connectivity Index (LSBCI): The top 10 scores for Asia and the Pacific routes in 2018 show strong connectivity.
• Internet Penetration: Increased from 1 in 5 Asians in 2010 to 1 in 2 in 2018.
• International Internet Bandwidth: Rose from 1.7 Tbps in 2010 to 56.6 Tbps in 2018.
• Intraregional Research Outputs: Rose from 38% to 49% of total outputs between 2006 and 2018.
• Environmental Cooperation: Asia's performance is comparable to other developing regions, though it lags behind Europe and North America. Environmental health has shown a decline, suggesting a need for more focused efforts in this area.

Methodological Innovations

• The enhanced framework includes Principal Component Analysis (PCA) for aggregation, improving the accuracy and consistency of the index.
• The index is now customizable, allowing economies to tailor it to their specific needs and objectives.
• Sensitivity analysis and robustness checks are included to address potential biases in the index, such as denominator choice and spatial autocorrelation.
• The report also introduces a globalization index as a blueprint for analyzing the full economic integration profile of an economy.

Applications and Future Directions

• The ARCII is used as a leading indicator within ADB's corporate results framework.
• It supports ADB's Strategy 2030, which emphasizes regional cooperation and integration as a key driver of inclusive and sustainable growth.
• The index will continue to evolve, reflecting global linkages and the role of regional integration in supporting globalization.
• The coverage has expanded from 158 to 173 economies, and the number of indicators has increased from 26 to 41.
• Future applications will include deeper analysis of the impact of economic integration on development outcomes, such as income convergence and inclusive growth.

Conclusion

The enhanced ARCII framework provides a more robust and comprehensive measure of regional cooperation and integration in the Asia-Pacific region. It includes new dimensions and indicators that reflect the evolving nature of RCI, particularly in digital connectivity and environmental cooperation. The framework also allows for customization and addresses methodological challenges, making it more adaptable and useful for policy analysis and strategic planning.